Three days, eight wins It makes sense to go from 10,000 to 50,000; it's hard not to make money with the surge in Hangzhou.

1. Tariff storm suddenly arises: Bitcoin faces a "frightening moment" in 24 hours. Trump publicly announced that the United States has entered into a trade war with China, clearly implementing a 100% tariff, and stated that "without tariffs, there is no defense." This statement confirms previous rumors that he threatened to impose full tariffs on China, marking an escalation in the economic confrontation between China and the United States. The digital asset market experienced a "bloody shock," with data confirming that $18.7 billion in open contracts evaporated within 24 hours, approaching the $20 billion mark. Bitcoin fell by 6.69% in a single day, while Ethereum plummeted over 8%, continuing the downward trend of "Red October." Short-term shock: Why is there a risk of falling below 100,000 dollars? 1. The liquidity squeeze effect of tariffs: Tariffs essentially raise import costs and exacerbate inflation, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. This combination will directly withdraw market liquidity from risk assets like Bitcoin, similar to the logic in 2018 when tariffs caused Bitcoin to fall below 6000 dollars. 2. Institutional hedging shifts pressure: In the face of uncertainty, institutional investors are turning to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and short-term government bonds, while Bitcoin is still regarded as a "high beta macro asset" (i.e., more volatile than the overall market), becoming a "collateral damage" in the capital flight. 3. Market sentiment turns pessimistic: According to Polymarket data, the market's expectations for the end of the month have reversed - the probability of falling to $95,000 far exceeds the probability of rising to $130,000, reflecting that macro policies have dominated cryptocurrency sentiment. 2. Trade War Escalation? Bitcoin May Welcome a Role Reversal The other side of the short-term plunge is the quiet shift in long-term logic. A research report from CITIC Securities in June pointed out that if the trade war breaks through the tariff level, Bitcoin may shift from a "risk asset" to a "substitute reserve asset," with the core triggering conditions and logic as follows: 1. Trigger scenario: If the United States restricts the use of cross-border US dollars or payment channels, global investors will seek non-US dollar asset alternatives. Deutsche Bank predicts that in this scenario, the narrative of Bitcoin's "decentralized value storage" will be strengthened, making it a reserve asset option alongside gold. Currently, gold prices have surpassed $4000, and both Bitcoin and gold ETFs have received record inflows, confirming this trend. 2. Role Transformation Logic: At this point, confidence in the US dollar system may be damaged, and the narrative of Bitcoin's "de-dollarization" and "decentralized value reserve" will be strengthened, upgrading from a short-term volatility asset to a geopolitical risk hedging tool, forming long-term price support. 3. Indirect effects of China's countermeasures: Although China's export controls on rare earths do not directly impact cryptocurrencies, they undermine the security of the American industrial chain and indirectly weaken the credibility of the dollar. Wang Yiwei from Renmin University of China pointed out that "American tariff extortion forces the world to seek alternatives, and Bitcoin may become an unexpected beneficiary," but the premise is that the trade war is not limited to the commodity sector. 3. Deduction: The Bitcoin trend under two scenarios Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads: in the short term, the liquidity contraction caused by tariffs and institutional hedging behavior will continue to suppress prices; in the long term, the escalation of the trade war may bring about a "de-dollarization" wave, potentially granting it a new asset positioning. As China's ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, said, "There are no winners in a trade war," and perhaps the fate of Bitcoin is hidden in the direction of this game.