Thursday Fed rate decision: ahead of BTC/ETH — Poetic Fragrance’s views Ahead of the decision, the market is in a wait-and-see mood, volatility increases, the risk of needle-like spikes rises, and before the news lands, avoid going all-in for a bet. Three scenario walkthroughs 【Bulls-leaning / dovish】 signals of easing BTC holds above 64,000 and targets 64,500/65,300 ETH holds above 1,900 and looks toward 1,930/1,960 【Neutral expectations】 balanced wording BTC maintains wide-range oscillation of 62,600-64,500 ETH range 1,840-1,930, churning back and forth 【Bears-leaning / hawkish】 tighter tone BTC falls below 62,600 and tests 62,000 ETH loses 1,840 and looks toward 1,800 BTC Resistance: 64,000, 64,500 Support: 63,000, 62,600 Recommendation: On a rebound to 63,700-64,000, set short positions; defend 64,500; target 63,000, and if broken, look to 62,600. If 62,600 holds, cautiously try a long with light position sizing. ETH BTC and ETH are highly correlated. After a spike to 1,982, it continues to fall, and the peak gradually moves lower. Resistance: 1,900, 1,930 Support: 1,860, 1,840 Recommendation: On a rebound to 1,890-1,910, set short positions; defend 1,930; target 1,860, then continue lower toward 1,840. Only if 1,840 stabilizes should you try a long with light position sizing. $BTC $ETH

Some people worry that $EPIC dropping this much will rebound, but in the face of the trend, any rebound is just an interlude. We entered at 0.7517, using 25x leverage, with a return of 232.59%. Look at the trading volume: the drop is happening on rising volume, while the rebound is happening on shrinking volume. What does that indicate? It indicates that the main force is escaping, while retail traders are catching a falling knife. We entered at the breakdown level of 0.7517—we basically hitched a ride on the main force’s distribution. This kind of “volume-price divergence” structure is extremely classic. Congratulations to the brothers who managed to “eat meat”—you’ve understood where the capital is flowing. If you didn’t catch it, don’t be impatient. Next time you see a drop on expanding volume and a rise on contracting volume, remember to short the moment it comes—reverse it. $BTC $ETH

The short position that left the deepest impression on me wasn’t the final move from 0.0001670 down to 0.0000725, but the sideways range in the middle that nearly ground my patience to dust. $ASTEROID looked like it was about to bounce—yet in reality, every time it surged higher, it lacked follow-through. I stared at the chart for a long time, itching to act a few times, but in the end I still held back and didn’t chase and change direction. When many people see consolidation at a high level, they instinctively think it still needs to rise for another stretch. At that time, I was instead more concerned about why it kept failing to open up any upside space. The more it ground into a盤, the more it indicated that sell pressure above hadn’t disappeared. After several false breakouts, the bid support started to loosen, and the shorts finally waited for a decent dump. When the price moved to 0.0000725, the result showed +1114.18%. This profit didn’t come from my being right on every step—it came from not panicking when the key volatility hit, and not getting washed out early by a short-term rebound. In the end, my original judgment played out naturally. Old hands all know that what most tests people is often not the crash itself, but the long waiting period right before the crash. For this kind of high-level pressure market now, I’m still willing to give the chart more time—don’t let one or two spikes pull you out of the correct rhythm. $BTC $ETH