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Waller has “downgraded” the nonfarm payrolls data: Even weaker employment could still mean a rate hike in September In the past, you only needed to remember one sentence: “Weak employment → lower rate-hike expectations.” Waller tore that sentence apart in Jackson Hole last week. The Fed’s reaction function has been completely rewritten. The old script was simple: July nonfarm payrolls came in shockingly weak—employment fell by 23k, versus expectations for an increase of 80k, while the previous two months were revised down by a combined 103k. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. In the Powell era, what would the market’s first reaction have been? The risk of a rate hike would have cooled sharply. Rate-cut expectations would have surged. But that was how the old world worked. Waller’s new framework: Employment is not the core variable In his Jackson Hole speech, Waller said three things, each dismantling the old framework: “Strong growth” — investment growth is robust, corporate profit margins are high, and expectations for corporate earnings growth are quite elevated. “Stable employment” — the labor market is fairly stable and meets the standard for full employment. “Severe inflation” — over the past six months, 49% of annualized price increases in the PCE basket exceeded 3%. The most important line: “It is difficult to say that current financial conditions are restrictive.” Put plainly—the current interest-rate level is simply not high enough to suppress inflation. Waller’s exact words were: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is clearly moving toward the target at a sufficiently rapid pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do.” The new formula: Inflation determines everything, while employment is merely the “brake” Waller has reversed the burden of proof. Old framework (Powell version): The Fed needs to prove why it should continue raising rates. New framework (Waller version): The data needs to prove why rates should not be raised. What state has the labor market entered? “Neither hiring nor firing.” The latest initial jobless claims came in at 203k, below expectations of 208k. Continuing claims fell to 23k. The wave of layoffs has not spread. August nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 55k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Under Waller’s new framework—this number is not bad. His logic: Slowing employment growth is often a demographic issue, not an economic recession. After Waller’s speech, CME data showed the probability of a September rate hike jumping from around 35% to nearly 60%. The probability of at least one rate hike this year rose to 88.9%. Bitcoin plunged 3% in the short term, briefly falling to $77,000. But the real storm has yet to arrive. When Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data is released—even if it is weak, as long as it is not “close to zero or even negative, with the unemployment rate surging above 4.2%,” the rate-hike trade will not reverse. The market can no longer speculate on “weak employment = no rate hike.” That formula has expired. Waller has reversed the burden of proof. In the past, the Fed needed to prove why it should continue raising rates; Now, the data needs to prove why rates should not be raised. That is the biggest “regime change” after Jackson Hole.#Gate7天净流入全球Top3 #BTC重返81000美元 #Strategy股价突破135美元 $BTC $ETH $XAU