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资本 markets remain highly volatile amid the aftermath of Middle East conflicts. Global stock markets have declined for the third consecutive week, posting their worst performance in nearly a year, with European and American markets hitting new lows this year. Inflation concerns triggered by soaring energy prices have also led to sell-offs in traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields sharply higher. Even gold failed to provide shelter, with prices briefly falling below $4,500 on Friday’s close. Investors are waiting for a bottom signal, wondering when the turbulence might end.

Three weeks limit?

History shows that markets often bottom out about three weeks after a crisis erupts. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid reviewed historical data in a report sent to First Financial, providing reasons to believe that the sell-off triggered by this crisis may be nearing its end.

Reid presented the average performance of the S&P 500 after 30 major geopolitical events. “In terms of timing, the S&P 500’s lowest point usually occurs about three weeks after the initial shock, and we are approaching this time window,” he noted. When looking at the maximum drawdowns following these events, the median is about -6%, and the average around -8%.

“From a longer-term perspective, the median return tends to recover to pre-shock levels by day 34 (less than seven weeks after the event), and the average return is also close to full recovery,” Reid added.

Independent research firm Variant Perception shares a similar view, believing market sentiment is about to shift, with the next few days marking the peak of uncertainty in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Recent market trading has become chaotic, signaling forced liquidations by some traders. “A very simple tactical liquidation rule is: when gold and stocks fall together sharply, it usually indicates margin calls or forced liquidations,” the firm explained. “We are in a phase of tactical liquidations. Investors are also panicking due to a sharp rise in short-term interest rates — the market has shifted from betting on multiple rate cuts this year to pricing in rate hikes. The recent VIX index above VIX futures also reflects intense risk-off activity.”

All this coincides with the expansion and escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This week, Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities were bombed, and Qatar significantly shut down natural gas production, signaling that the worst-case scenario is beginning to materialize. “Critical energy infrastructure has been heavily damaged, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted — events unimaginable three weeks ago. Now, they are reality,” the firm stated. This seems likely to be a key event marking the peak of market uncertainty in the coming days.

Another 5% decline possible?

For investors, future oil prices will significantly influence the stabilization of risk assets.

Michael Hartnett, chief strategist at Bank of America, said the market has not fully capitulated but is getting closer. When 88% of global stock indices fall below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages simultaneously, it signals a prime opportunity to increase risk exposure.

The S&P 500 has already hit this level, but global markets need to fall another 3% to 5% to trigger this major buying opportunity.

Another buy signal could be an increase in cash holdings in investment portfolios to 5%. A March survey of fund managers by Bank of America showed this ratio rising from a low of 3.2% in 2026 to 4.2%, with the 5% threshold not far off. Rising oil prices are causing ongoing market losses — affected by the U.S.-Iran conflict and attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities, Brent crude has gained two-thirds year-to-date.

Hartnett believes that the upcoming midterm elections in November could prompt President Trump to seek a quick de-escalation. This is also the main basis for Bank of America’s core investment advice: short the dollar when the dollar index is above 100; go long when the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5%; and go long if the S&P 500 drops below 6,600. However, if the conflict ends and Trump’s approval rating does not recover, U.S. stocks may struggle to reach new highs this summer.

The recent accelerated market correction actually began last October — when the Federal Reserve started cutting rates while stocks were at high levels. Hartnett said, “The end of a sharp correction often coincides with oversold sectors bottoming out.” This phenomenon is happening with Bitcoin, software sectors, and the “Seven Giants” of U.S. stocks. Previously overbought gold, precious metals, semiconductors, and emerging markets have also experienced painful capitulation selling. Hartnett’s team believes that once the market is convinced that oil prices will permanently fall below $100, investors will be much safer to re-engage risk.

Hartnett also outlined three core investment themes for the next five years: 1. A commodities bull market expanding from gold to metals, energy, and strategic resources like chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil, with countries controlling these resources gaining a significant advantage. 2. Investors will favor international stocks and U.S. mid-cap stocks over highly leveraged large-cap U.S. stocks. 3. Recommending inverse consumer stocks — these may benefit from policies aimed at helping low-income voters.

(Источник: First Financial)