Any industry veteran who has reaped the benefits will have many methodologies to share with you, such as how to judge the industry, how to determine cycles, and how to manage business models and teams. It may make you feel that understanding these theoretical logics will also lead to success.

It is necessary to acknowledge the brilliance of these logics in the process of "fantasy entrepreneurship"; they sound impressive and reasonable. However, in many cases, these theories are just explanations that previous individuals constructed after achieving success by luck. Compared to admitting that luck is a core element, it is much easier to acknowledge one's correct choices and long-term efforts.
This is also the Self-Serving Bias - when things go well, we attribute more to ourselves, while when things fail, we push the responsibility onto the environment.
Return to the essence of doing things, and believe that no matter how impressive the founder is, in the early stages, they are not able to foresee the changes of ten years ahead. The core still lies in being bold, meticulous, learning quickly, and working hard. These cannot guarantee success, but they can maximize your chances of staying at the table and hitting a big opportunity.