Can Toncoin break through 10 dollars? In-depth analysis of Telegram's blockchain integration strategy and technological advantages | TON price prediction

The Telegram blockchain project TON (Telegram Open Network), which was previously halted by the U.S. SEC, has been restarted by the community as "The Open Network" and has received official support from Telegram. With deep integration with 1 billion users, unlimited sharding technology, and high-speed transaction performance, Toncoin is expected to experience explosive growth in 2024: the number of active on-chain wallets surged from 2.9 million to 32 million within a year, and the total value locked (TVL) jumped from 76 million dollars to 740 million dollars. Despite facing regulatory legacy issues and challenges such as concentrated holdings among large investors, analysts point out that TON is forming a symmetrical triangle technical pattern, indicating a possible 50% price breakout in the future.

From SEC Lawsuit to Community Rebirth: The Twisted Origin of TON

In 2018, Telegram founders Pavel and Nikolai Durov launched the Blockchain project TON with a record-breaking $1.7 billion in funding, aiming to build a high-speed network capable of serving global users. However, in 2020, the U.S. SEC deemed its native token "Gram" an illegal security, forcing Telegram to refund and terminate the project. Subsequently, community developers formed the TON Foundation, continued development based on open-source code, and ultimately gained Telegram's recognition, becoming its officially supported Blockchain network.

Billion-Level User Integration: Creating an Intangible Cryptocurrency Economic Experience

The core advantage of TON lies in its deep integration with Telegram's billion-user ecosystem. The built-in "@wallet" and self-custody wallet TON Space allow users to transfer cryptocurrencies as easily as sending an emoji. In addition, Telegram shares 50% of its advertising revenue with public channel owners in the form of Toncoin, creating strong demand for the token with an average of trillions of views per month. The recently launched "Telegram Stars" in-app currency can also be exchanged for TON, further strengthening the digital economy closed loop within the chat application.

Infinite Sharding Architecture: A Technological Innovation to Break Performance Bottlenecks

TON adopts a unique "infinite sharding" design, where smart contracts are processed in parallel through message passing, theoretically supporting up to 2^60 sub-chains. In public testing, it has reached 104,715 TPS, far exceeding most competitors. Unlike Solana (which often experiences interruptions) and Ethereum (which relies on Layer-2 scaling), TON's scalability is inherent in its underlying architecture. The network operates on a proof-of-stake (PoS) basis, with an annual inflation rate of approximately 0.6%, and half of the transaction fees are destroyed through community voting, enhancing token scarcity.

On-chain Data Explosion: The Driving Force Behind the Rise from Notcoin to TVL

In 2024, TON on-chain activities saw a significant rise: the number of daily active wallets increased from 2.9 million a year ago to 32 million, largely thanks to the viral spread of "click-to-earn" games like Notcoin (NOT) and Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), successfully guiding millions of users to create their first crypto wallets. Meanwhile, the network's TVL rose from about $76 million to a peak of $740 million, with decentralized exchanges STON.fi and DeDust.io being major contributors, and the integration of Tether (USDT) further boosted financial activity.

Price Prediction and Challenges: Can It Break Through the Key $10 Level?

The current price of TON is between 3.06 and 3.18 USD, with a market capitalization of approximately 7.85 billion USD. If it rises to 10 USD, the market capitalization would need to exceed 25 billion USD to rank among the top crypto assets. Achieving this goal depends on three main factors: a positive overall crypto market, continuous conversion of Telegram users, and the implementation of technological commitments such as cross-chain bridges.

However, TON still faces challenges such as SEC regulatory legacy issues (mainstream exchanges in the U.S. still have difficulty trading), concentration of Large Investors Holdings (about 68% of the supply is controlled by a few addresses), and high thresholds for validation nodes. To address this, the TON Foundation has launched the "Society DAO" governance project, attempting to transfer more control and benefits to the community.

Technical analysis shows key patterns, which may lead to a 50% volatility.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the daily chart of TON is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, which usually indicates that a price breakout is imminent. Once it effectively breaks through the upper or lower boundary, it could trigger a 50% price fluctuation. Currently, the price of TON is gradually approaching the end of the pattern and may test the lower boundary support in the near future, with the direction of the breakout becoming key for subsequent trends.

Conclusion

Toncoin, with its technical uniqueness, the vast user base of Telegram, and an active on-chain ecosystem, has become one of the most promising blockchain projects in 202. Despite still needing to address regulatory uncertainties and doubts about centralization, its "in-app blockchain" integration model provides a new paradigm for the large-scale adoption of cryptocurrency. Whether it can break through $10 and grow into a top public chain depends on the interplay of technology implementation, community governance, and the macro environment.

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