Bitcoin hits a new high of $117,000! Long-term investors are "Coin Hoarding" more than miners, and the derivatives market indicates a continued pump.

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic high of $117,000 on Thursday (July 10). Long-term investors continue with Coin Hoarding, and according to a Glassnode report, the Bitcoin on-chain and derivatives markets are reflecting volatility compression and increasingly tight supply.

The report indicates that since June, the cumulative trend score has remained high, reflecting that even though prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, investor buying activity remains stable. Shortly after the report was released, Bitcoin broke through the $112,000 threshold, entering a new phase of price discovery. Subsequently, prices surged further, reaching a new peak of $117,000.

Long-term investors continue to increase their holdings

The amount of coins held by long-term holders continues to increase, surpassing the release rate of miners. This indicates that there is a general mindset of "Coin Hoarding" (HODL) in the market before a clear price trend emerges.

Specifically, addresses holding less than 100 BTC increase by an average of 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the new issuance of 13,400 BTC per month—this means that most of the new supply is absorbed by long-term wallets.

Currently, the actual fluctuation in the time range of 1 week to 6 months is at its lowest level since December 2022. Since then, only 6% of trading days have had a 30-day fluctuation range narrower than now, and only 0.4% of trading days have had a 60-day fluctuation range narrower.

This "multi-timeframe compression" structure indicates that the market is accumulating energy in a "compressed spring" state, where even minor fluctuations in demand can lead to significant price volatility.

Derivative Market and ETF Liquidity

The implied volatility of the breakeven price in the options market has been declining across all time frames, with its percentage at the lowest level since the end of 2022.

History shows that when option prices do not reflect high fluctuation and market liquidity is low, the market often experiences strong fluctuations in one direction.

The actual supply density indicator from Glassnode shows that 19% of the Bitcoin supply is within the ±10% range of the current price. This means that small price fluctuations could significantly affect the unrealized profits of a large number of investors, thereby increasing the likelihood of a strong trading reaction when the price breaks out of the accumulation range.

In the United States, spot Bitcoin ETFs currently manage a record $137 billion in assets, accounting for 6.4% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.

Although the net inflow last week was only $144 million, stable demand has shifted a large portion of funds toward managed investment products. BlackRock's IBIT ETF currently accounts for 55% of total ETF assets, and its open interest is leading, with its pricing closely related to the overall market position model.

The conclusion of the report is that the continuous new highs of Bitcoin have occurred in an environment of tight liquidity, relatively low actual volatility, and strong on-chain accumulation—this has quietly formed volatility across the market while prices still hover near historical highs.