Fall to the bottom? a16z buys the dip of $WLD with 135 million, the breakthrough path of Iris Utopia.

Written by: Luke, Mars Finance

On May 21, 2025, Worldcoin's parent company, World Foundation, dropped a bombshell: its subsidiary, World Assets Ltd., sold $135 million worth of WLD tokens at market price to Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Bain Capital Crypto. Upon the news, the WLD price briefly soared over 13%, peaking at $1.29, with trading volume surging by 70%. However, comments from Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougam, cast a dramatic shadow over the transaction: "WLD has fallen 90% over the past 14 months, and I have never seen anything like this. To be honest, it's quite interesting." Why did two top venture capitalists still spend lavishly when the WLD price was at a low? This is not just a capital gamble; it's also a deep test of Worldcoin's technological vision, economic model design, and future potential.

The ups and downs of WLD in a year: from highlights to lows

Worldcoin was founded in 2019 by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, aiming to solve a core issue of the AI era: how to verify human identity in a world overwhelmed by generative AI through its "World ID". Its core device, Orb, relies on NVIDIA technology to efficiently perform iris scans and generate privacy-preserving digital identities. By May 2025, the Worldcoin network had attracted 26 million users, of which 12.5 million had World IDs verified by Orb, demonstrating particularly strong appeal in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America. The launch of World ID 3.0 optimized the identity verification process, while the development of the World Chain blockchain provided the infrastructure for decentralized transactions. These advancements may have led venture capitalists to see an undervalued "platform-level" opportunity in the market.

Since its launch in July 2023, the WLD token has experienced a rollercoaster price trend. On March 10, 2024, WLD reached an all-time high of $11.80, with a market cap nearing $18 billion, as the market was full of expectations for its "global verification network" vision. However, the good times did not last long, as the WLD price continued to decline due to market sell-offs, unlocking mechanisms, and regulatory controversies. As of May 2025, the WLD price fluctuated between $1.33 and $1.47, down about 90% from its all-time high.

From a data perspective, WLD's performance is embarrassing:

Price volatility: In May 2024, WLD briefly rebounded to $5 due to the AI boom and rumors related to OpenAI, but then fell to a year-low of $1.12 due to ongoing unlocking pressure. Financing news in May 2025 pushed the price back up to $1.29, but it failed to break through the key resistance level of $1.22.

Trading Volume: In the past year, WLD's 24-hour trading volume peaked in July 2024 at $560 million, and hit a low in January 2025 at $260 million. Recently, trading volume rose to $296 million due to financing news, indicating a resurgence in market interest.

Circulation and Market Value: WLD's current circulation is approximately 1.52 billion coins, accounting for only 15% of the total supply (10 billion coins). The market value is between 2-2.2 billion USD, ranking between 53rd and 64th, reflecting its fluctuating market position.

Market sentiment: Discussions on platform X indicate that some users are optimistic about the long-term potential of WLD, especially under the influence of Sam Altman and ChatGPT, but there are also criticisms regarding its high unlocking pressure and centralization risks.

The continuous decline of WLD is related to the overall volatility of the crypto market, but the deeper reason may lie in the "awkwardness" of its economic model design.

The Embarrassment of the Economic Model: The Vision of Inclusion and the Reality of Selling Pressure

Worldcoin's economic model aims to be "inclusive" and aims to attract users around the world to its identity verification network by distributing WLD tokens through iris scanning. The whitepaper states that the total supply of WLD is 10 billion, of which 75% is allocated to the community, 13.5% to investors, 9.8% to the initial development team, and 1.7% as a reserve. This design was originally intended to achieve "one copy per person in the world" digital currency distribution, but in practice, multiple problems were exposed.

First of all, the high unlocking pressure is the main reason for the decline in WLD prices. The tokens allocated to the community are gradually unlocked through four smart contracts, releasing about 5 million tokens daily, worth approximately 7 million USD, continuing until 2038. This high-frequency unlocking has led to continuous market pressure, with many users immediately selling off their free tokens, further exacerbating the price drop. Users have stated: "The total amount is too large, too many are unlocked every day, and there are plenty of coins waiting to be sold."

Secondly, centralized risk undermines the vision of decentralization. Data shows that five wallets hold about 60% of the WLD supply, with a single wallet holding 20.71%. This highly concentrated token distribution may lead to market manipulation risks, contradicting Worldcoin's claim of "decentralized governance". In addition, tokens held by early investors and the development team need to be locked for 12 months before gradually unlocking, but a large amount of unlocking within the next three years may still exacerbate selling pressure.

Thirdly, the controversy over the incentive mechanism has affected market trust. Worldcoin attracted 26 million users by distributing tokens for free, but some users participated only for short-term arbitrage, lacking long-term recognition of the project. In addition, its promotional strategy in low-income countries has raised ethical concerns, such as the iris scans in Kenya and Indonesia being accused of "exploiting vulnerable groups." These controversies not only damaged the brand image but also raised doubts about the long-term value of WLD in the market.

Finally, the uncertainty of the inflation mechanism poses hidden dangers for the future. The white paper stipulates that after 15 years, users can decide through governance whether to implement an annual inflation rate of up to 1.5%. While this provides flexibility for the community, it may also dilute the value of the tokens and reduce investor confidence.

Value Hunters in the Valley: The Long-Term Logic of Venture Capital

For long-term investors like a16z and Bain Capital Crypto, the 90% drop in WLD is not a signal of panic, but rather a once-in-a-lifetime "value trough." The history of the crypto market has repeatedly shown that extreme volatility often accompanies valuation mismatches. The current fully diluted valuation of WLD is approximately $1 billion, significantly lower than its historical peak, while the technology, team, and vision of Worldcoin continue to progress steadily. Bain Capital Crypto is also renowned for supporting disruptive technologies, such as its investments in blockchain infrastructure and decentralized finance (DeFi). The choices made by these two institutions indicate their belief that Worldcoin's iris scanning technology and global identification system have the potential to be game-changing.

Moreover, Worldcoin's strong defense of privacy controversies at the Consensus 2025 conference has boosted investor confidence. The team emphasized that iris scan data is stored locally, complying with global privacy protection requirements, such as the EU's GDPR and the US's CCPA. This statement has alleviated market concerns regarding data security to some extent. a16z and Bain Capital Crypto may believe that the current market panic is a misjudgment of Worldcoin's technological potential and long-term value, and that the 90% drop provides them with an ideal opportunity for a low entry position.

America's Ambition: From Technological Implementation to Ecological Expansion

The funds from this transaction will mainly be used to accelerate Worldcoin's expansion in the U.S. market. On May 1, Worldcoin launched "World ID" in the U.S. and opened iris scanning service points in six cities: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Chicago, and Seattle. The Orb manufacturing plant in Richardson, Texas is under construction and is expected to significantly increase production capacity. The U.S. is not only a global technology trendsetter but also one of the markets with the most complex regulatory environments. Worldcoin's decision to enter at this time demonstrates its confidence in technology maturity and market timing.

The significance of the U.S. market lies not only in its economic scale but also in its status as a bellwether for global innovation and regulation. The deployment of Worldcoin's iris scanning technology in the U.S. market means that it must face strict privacy and data protection regulations, such as California's CCPA and potential federal legislation. However, Worldcoin seems to be well-prepared. Its partnership with Visa on the World App debit card project injects financial payment utility into the WLD token; the age verification pilot on Tinder with Match Group explores possibilities in the social domain. These collaborations not only enhance Worldcoin's brand influence but also provide support for the practical use cases of its token.

The ecological expansion of Worldcoin does not stop here. The launch of the World Chain blockchain marks further improvement of its technological ecosystem. This blockchain prioritizes transactions verified by humans, providing a trust foundation for decentralized applications (DApps). For example, in the DeFi sector, World Chain can ensure that participants in lending and trading are real humans, rather than AI bots; in the social media field, World ID can reduce fake accounts and bot content. These application scenarios support the long-term value of the WLD token and show venture capitalists the potential of Worldcoin as the "next-generation internet infrastructure."

Technology and privacy regulation privacy

Despite the sluggish prices, Worldcoin has notable aspects in technology and ecological development. Its core technology, World ID, performs iris scans through Orb devices and combines zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) to protect user privacy. In October 2024, Worldcoin launched its own Layer-2 blockchain, World Chain, replacing the Optimism network, which enhanced transaction efficiency and provided priority block space for user verification. World ID 3.0 and the more portable Orb Mini lowered the verification threshold, further promoting user growth. As of May 2025, the Worldcoin network covers 26 million users, of which 12.5 million have World IDs verified by Orb.

Worldcoin's ecosystem is also expanding into multiple scenarios:

Financial scenario: The World App debit card project in collaboration with Visa supports WLD payments, injecting utility into the token.

Social Scenario: Pilot age verification with Match Group on Tinder, exploring the application of digital identity in the social field.

Blockchain Services: World Chain supports the integration of applications such as Uniswap and Alchemy, providing developers with the convenience of deploying contracts.

These developments demonstrate Worldcoin's efforts to transition from "iris scanning" to a "global identity network." However, the potential of technological innovation has not yet been fully translated into token value, which is closely related to the flaws in the economic model.

Worldcoin's iris scanning technology is its core competitive advantage and also its biggest point of controversy. Despite the team's emphasis on local data storage and ZKP technology, global regulators remain highly vigilant about its data collection methods. In May 2025, Indonesia suspended Worldcoin operations due to privacy concerns, and Spain and Portugal also launched investigations. Previously, Kenya had banned its iris scanning activities in 2023. These events highlight the varying levels of acceptance of biometric technology in different cultural and legal environments.

Public trust in iris scanning also takes time to build. Users on platform X have questioned: "World App has insider trading, and the official is harvesting users through support of mini-programs." Although these accusations lack solid evidence, they reflect market concerns regarding Worldcoin's transparency and privacy protection.

Conclusion: An adventure that is yet to be continued.

Worldcoin's story is reminiscent of Bitcoin's early days: full of controversy, yet full of possibilities. Jake Brukhman, co-founder of CoinFund, retweeted a long WLD post, saying, "12 years ago, I bought Bitcoin when it was valued at $10 billion, when various forces tried to kill it. WLD will be a more widely distributed currency, riding the tailwind of regulatory clarity and blockchain innovation. ”

The reasons for optimism are evident: Worldcoin's technological vision aligns with the demands of the AI era, and its user growth and ecological expansion demonstrate its potential for implementation. However, flaws in the economic model, high unlocking pressure, and regulatory uncertainty remain stumbling blocks on its path forward. To achieve the ambitious goal of a "global identity network," Worldcoin needs to make breakthroughs in the following areas:

Optimize token economics: reduce unlocking frequency or introduce a buyback mechanism to alleviate sell pressure.

Enhance transparency: disclose more details about data processing to rebuild public trust.

Expand application scenarios: Promote the use of WLD in more financial, social, and governance contexts.

The $135 million investment from a16z and Bain Capital Crypto is an endorsement of Worldcoin and a bold bet on the future of digital identity. In an era where AI and blockchain intersect, Worldcoin's iris scanning technology and World ID may be laying the foundation for a decentralized trust network. However, the awkwardness of the economic model, the regulatory constraints, and market volatility make this adventure fraught with uncertainty.

The past year of WLD, from its highs to lows, reflects the fluctuations of the crypto market and the complex human attitude towards new technologies. Just as Bitcoin grew from a valuation of 10 billion USD to a global asset, the story of WLD is just beginning. This game about identity, trust, and the future will only be answered by time.