The Great Recession of 2025 is about to hit: A repeat of 2008, how to deal with Black Monday

Original author: @bored2boar

Compiled by: Oliver, Mars Finance

In the past few months, I have been providing the market with the most accurate predictions and warning about the risks of a market crash in advance. Today, I will once again reveal an imminent crisis: the Great Recession of 2025. This crisis will replay the financial storm of 2008, banks will fail, and both cryptocurrencies and the stock market will crash, with $BTC dropping below $40,000, while other cryptocurrencies (Alts) will face losses of up to 90%. Before this "Black Monday" arrives, I will tell you the countermeasures you must take.

1. Familiarity: The Reenactment of 2008

The current situation feels eerily familiar, as if we have returned to 2008. High debt, unstable banks, an overheated market, and political turmoil—all warning signs are flashing in bright red. However, market participants are overly optimistic and fail to notice that a crisis is imminent. Just like before the crash in 2008, the system appears stable on the surface... until it suddenly collapses.

2.7 trillion debt crisis

The United States needs to refinance up to $7 trillion in debt within the next six months. But the problem is that the current high interest rates make refinancing costs extraordinarily high. The government's only "solution" may be to drive bond prices up by creating a market crash, thus lowering interest rates. This is exactly the script of history and the biggest risk at present.

3. Trump's Strategy

After Trump regained power, he adopted a tough economic strategy. He is aware that a market crash can lower bond yields, thereby reducing the cost of debt refinancing. The faster the crash occurs, the lower the cost of economic recovery. This is an ugly game, and I warned you about it long before.

4. The Key Role of the Bond Market

The core of this crisis lies in the bond market. If bond prices rise and yields fall, the interest cost of government debt will decrease. To make bonds more attractive, the stock market must decline. This will force capital to flow from the stock market to the bond market, benefiting bonds while the stock market suffers severe losses.

5. Trade War: A Catalyst for Inflation

Trump recently announced a series of radical tariff policies: a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, 25% on South Korean products, and as much as 46% on Vietnamese imports. This is not just trade protectionism; it resembles a catalyst for inflation. Rising import prices will drive up inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power, and further complicate the Federal Reserve's policy. A similar situation occurred in 2008.

6. Global Chain Reaction

These tariffs will trigger retaliation from trade partner countries. U.S. exports will be impacted, multinational companies' profits will shrink, and supply chains will slow down. This is precisely the starting point of the downward spiral in the global market, and this process has already quietly begun.

7. Hidden liquidity crisis

Behind the scenes, liquidity within the market is being quietly drained. Trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the buy orders in market depth are disappearing. On the surface, the market appears stable, but in reality, it has become a fragile shell. It was the same before the 2008 financial crisis; everything seemed normal until the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a chain reaction.

8. Shadow Risk: Potential Crisis of Banks

Although banks appear "safe" on the surface, their exposure to derivative risks is astonishingly high. Many financial institutions still hold high-risk debt products similar to those in 2008, just under new names. Credit is tightening, and default rates are rising. History is repeating itself.

9. Impact of the Cryptocurrency Market

In theory, cryptocurrencies should benefit from this chaos. However, in the early stages of a market crash, all assets decline. Institutional investors will sell $BTC and $ETH to cover losses, and other cryptocurrencies (Alts) will suffer the most severe blows. Only in the later stages of the crisis may cryptocurrencies rise from the ruins—similar to the situation after 2020.

10. A bear market pattern has formed.

Retail investors are still in a frenzy, ignoring macroeconomic risks and blindly following Trump's optimistic remarks. However, the market has already dropped 30% since Trump took office. This phase of "refusing to believe" is a classic characteristic before destruction. Next, the market may drop more than 50% again, just like in 2008.

11. The Predicament of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma: raising interest rates will stifle the economy, while lowering them will reignite inflation. This is a lose-lose situation. In 2008, the Federal Reserve misjudged the timing; by 2025, they will be out of options. If the market crashes, the Federal Reserve will have no effective solutions.

12. Political pressure of elections

Trump seeks to control the market narrative from the start. A market crash in 2025 will give him time to achieve economic recovery before the 2026 midterm elections or early 2028, thus shaping the image of a "savior." By controlling the economic cycle, he can influence public opinion and ultimately affect the vote.

13. Final Thoughts: How to Cope

If this crash happens as expected, it will be part of Trump's plan - a forced reset to clean up the debt mess. If you are still in the market, be prepared to hedge; if you hold cryptocurrencies, maintain liquidity. If you followed my advice three months ago, you should have already moved your funds into stablecoins.