How do you view the current "garbage time" in Crypto?

Author: Haotian

Here are a few thoughts on the current primary and secondary markets:

1. The current debate about bull and bear markets is meaningless. It is important to understand that the bull and bear markets are mainly supported by market expectations and consensus, aside from the continuous rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices.

If the market unanimously believes that most projects are "garbage", and listing on exchanges becomes the end of the journey, while the "good news" that the project team builds is ignored, then it is undoubtedly a "bear market".

A market where the expectation of "consensus" collapses is more terrifying than simply having no "price" performance.

2. The current Crypto environment seems easier than ever, yet harder than ever.

From the earliest expectations of the ICO market for the primary construction of decentralized infrastructure, to the last cycle where the market upgraded and iterated around technology narratives, to the institutional adoption of a major uptrend and the explosion of MEME Coin wealth effects, and finally, the long-awaited spot ETF for crypto has finally materialized, along with support from a crypto-friendly U.S. government, compliance legislation and plans are also on the way, all "external factors" seem to be looking positive.

But looking at Crypto itself, which projects are truly irreplaceable? What types of technology infrastructure have the potential for large-scale implementation? Which narratives are truly invulnerable to disproof? Which coins can accompany growth in the long term? Or which MEMEs can help you sleep soundly overnight? ... I believe that when it comes to these "internal factor" questions, most people feel lost.

Clearly, with only external factors providing benefits and no internal value support, the market will still remain in a "chaotic" state. If we ignore the value trace and irrationally focus on macroeconomic stimulus for investment, isn't this market just too torturous?

3. The question arises, what to do? Call for a return to technical narratives; clearly, without new innovative applications for old technology projects, it won't work. Similarly, the criticism of the MEME market's irrationality is also due to the avoidance of the main contradiction where technology cannot be implemented. Everything is actually a systemic issue within the industry, caused by long-term opacity, potential manipulation, lack of regulation, and excessive profit-seeking, leading to a "game + internal consumption" situation.

To break the deadlock, the process will inevitably be painful and must be entrusted to time. For example, how to reasonably value a valuable project, how to make those worthless harvesting projects lose their survival soil, and how to allow some new narrative directions to continue to evolve and develop, etc.

From a different perspective, after the market speculation wave where "assets are as numerous as cattle hair" has passed and the market pressure of shit everything has set in, the opportunities for value investing that belong to us will truly arrive. Even if there are many garbage projects, there will always be some teams with great visions, innovation + execution abilities, and a long-term building mindset, right?

In fact, the Crypto industry has experienced excessive Fomo and moments of pessimistic despair in every Cycle, but it seems to have weathered them all and always unexpectedly found a breakthrough solution. Looking back, it has actually been making progress.