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TSMC's investor conference is being held today, with a premium of nearly 30% compared to 2330. Is there a trap opportunity?
TSMC's investor conference will be held at 14:00 Taipei time today. Its ADR (code TSM) surged by 2.66% in the US yesterday, with a premium of up to 28% compared to Taiwan's stock 2330. Could this be the most profitable Arbitrage trade in the financial world?
What is TSMC ADR? What's the difference with 2330?
ADR is the abbreviation of American Depositary Receipts, which refers to the stock certificates of companies listed outside the United States and listed in the United States. Companies like TSMC issue ADRs in the United States, making it easier for American investors to buy shares of Taiwanese companies and also allowing Taiwanese companies to increase their visibility in the US market and raise funds.
TSMC issued ADR to the United States in 1997, with stock code TSM, and the exchange ratio with Taiwan stock is 1:5. Since ADR directly packages some of TSMC's stocks issued in Taiwan, the stock prices of the two should not be far apart in theory.
The stock price of TSMC ADR can be converted into the stock price of TSMC (2330) using the following formula:
USD to TWD exchange rate × TSMC ADR stock price ÷5=TSMC 2330 stock price
For example, yesterday's TSMC ADR price was $206.8, and the closing exchange rate of USD to TWD was 33.065. Therefore, the converted price of TSMC ADR in Taiwan is: 33.065 × 206.8 ÷ 5 = 1,368
Compared with the closing price of TSMC 2330 yesterday at 1,065 yuan, it is 28% higher, that is, the premium of TSMC ADR compared to the spot market of Taiwan stock 2330 is 28%.
Is the US-Taiwan Arbitrage trading profitable?
In theory, this is one of the most profitable Arbitrage trades in the financial industry. The price of TSMC stock in New York is much higher than in Taipei. Can you easily make a profit by shorting TSMC stock in the US and buying Taiwan stock (2330)?
According to Bloomberg data, the price difference between TSM and 2330 has not only narrowed, but the average price difference in January has expanded to 25%, the highest level since 2009, higher than the 6.4% in the past ten years.
With no sign of the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence waning, TSMC has become a favorite among US investors who cannot easily buy the chipmaker's cheap stocks in Taipei. For hedge funds trying to bet on narrowing spreads, their concern is that even if the premium soars to jaw-dropping levels, investors will continue to push up the price of US stocks.
Riding the AI wave, TSMC continues to rise
TSMC is the preferred chip manufacturer for Nvidia and Apple, and has been a top artificial intelligence company held by global stock investors due to its leading technology and reasonable valuation compared to US tech giants. Since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, as of Tuesday, TSM has surged over 150%, while 2330 has risen 124%.
TSM not only attracts active investors, but is also included in indicators such as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Exchange Traded Funds. This means that funds tracking them must purchase the US version to outperform stocks listed in Taiwan. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that although TSM accounts for only one-fifth of the company's listed shares, its average daily trading volume over the past three months is twice that of 2330.
In addition, according to a study by Goldman Sachs in June, the time for TSM premium expansion is often longer than the time for contraction, and after 2023, it will take longer to reverse this trend.
TSMC's analyst meeting is approaching, with 90% of analysts still recommending a buy
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's earnings conference will be held at 14:00 Taipei time today, giving global investors an opportunity to assess the demand for artificial intelligence. At that time, the chip giant will release quarterly sales outlook and capital expenditure guidance for this year. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the company expects a gross margin of about 58% for the three months ending in December, and profits are expected to grow by 55%.
According to data from Standard & Poor's Global, as of Monday, the short interest of TSM accounted for 0.4% of the issued shares, lower than 3.1% in June, indicating that investors are still optimistic about the stock. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, over 90% of analysts recommend buying the stock.
This article TSMC's legal conference will be held today, with TSMC trading at a premium of nearly 30% compared to 2330. Is there an Arbitrage opportunity? First appeared on ChainNews ABMedia.