“Berapa lama lagi industri penyimpanan akan kekurangan stok”? Tidak bisa masuk ke ruang pamer, tidak bisa masuk ke area acara, apa tren yang diungkapkan CFMS tahun ini?

与2025年人群摩肩接踵相比，全球存储产业标杆峰会CFMS｜MemoryS 2026会场现场不太一样。
Compared to the bustling crowds of 2025, the venue for the global storage industry benchmark summit CFMS | MemoryS 2026 is quite different.

接近中午时分，去往二楼主会场和展厅的电梯被停，楼梯也被限行，现场安保只放展商和媒体进入；主会厅内观众乌泱泱站到门口，里面气温都升高了几度，一楼同步的户外会场和室内会场坐满人，与会者既害怕错过任何财富密码，又害怕接上这轮“存储超级周期”最后一棒。
Around noon, the elevators to the second-floor main venue and exhibition hall were stopped, and the stairs were also restricted; on-site security only allowed exhibitors and media to enter; the main hall was filled with spectators crowded at the door, and the temperature inside had risen several degrees. The outdoor and indoor venues on the first floor were packed, and attendees were both afraid of missing any wealth keys and worried about catching the last leg of this “storage super cycle.”

闪存市场作为主办方，公司总经理邰炜每年都会回顾行情：2023年业内担心存储价格还会跌多久，2024年关心价格还会涨多久。“今年就连酒店工作人员都在问我，存储行业缺货还要缺多久？”
As the organizer of the Flash Memory Market, General Manager Tai Wei reviews the market every year: in 2023, the industry was worried about how long storage prices would continue to drop, and in 2024, they were concerned about how long prices would rise. “This year, even hotel staff are asking me how long the storage industry will be out of stock.”

根据闪存市场机构预估，2026年全球半导体存储器的市场规模将突破6000亿美元，数倍于以往的任何时候。存储行业的焦点已经从比价转到拿货，“有些产品刚从原厂下线就被立刻插入客户的服务器中，这在以往是不可想象的。”
According to estimates from the Flash Memory Market organization, the global semiconductor memory market size will exceed $600 billion in 2026, several times higher than at any time before. The focus of the storage industry has shifted from price comparison to obtaining products, “Some products are immediately inserted into customers’ servers as soon as they come off the production line, which was unimaginable in the past.”

“我们的销售比以往更忙了，每天都要看谁家需求更迫切。”有存储展商向记者表示，可能只满足客户3—4成需求，如果遇到需求太高的，直接拒绝了。
“Our sales are busier than ever, and every day we have to see who has more urgent needs,” said an exhibitor in the storage sector to reporters, noting that they might only meet 30-40% of customer demand and would outright refuse if the demand was too high.

种种信号似乎都指向，本轮存储行情上涨不同以往。但是，所有人也在疑问另一个问题，这种景气度会持续多久？
Various signals seem to indicate that this round of rising storage prices is different from the past. However, everyone is also questioning another issue: how long will this prosperity last?

从供给来看，尽管存储原厂陆续开始增加资本支出以扩张产能，但是经过前几轮“巨亏周期”以后，原厂信奉的不再是规模至上，而是 “纪律性增产”，优先提供高技术、高价值、高壁垒的产品。这也导致供应弹性下降，未来波动收窄，有望拉长行业景气周期。
From the supply side, although storage manufacturers have begun to increase capital expenditures to expand production capacity, after the previous rounds of “huge loss cycles,” manufacturers no longer adhere to scale supremacy, but rather “disciplined production increases,” prioritizing high-tech, high-value, and high-barrier products. This has also led to a decrease in supply elasticity, narrowing future fluctuations and potentially lengthening the industry’s prosperity cycle.

时间维度上来看，存储产能扩张周期往往长达18个月至24个月，最早要到2027年才有新产能释放，可谓远水不解近渴。 邰炜指出，“2026年，全球没有任何一款主流的AI产品能够做到供需完全平衡。”据预测，存储产品的价格已经历了连续三个季度大涨，预计2026年第三季度开始涨幅会逐渐收敛，一些具体产品线上价格会有一些分化。
From a time dimension perspective, the storage capacity expansion cycle often lasts 18 to 24 months, with new capacity expected to be released as early as 2027, which is far from solving immediate needs. Tai Wei pointed out, “In 2026, there will not be any mainstream AI product in the world that can achieve a complete balance of supply and demand.” It is predicted that the prices of storage products have experienced consecutive increases for three quarters, and it is expected that the rate of increase will gradually converge starting in the third quarter of 2026, with some specific product prices showing some differentiation.

存储主控龙头慧荣科技高管则坚称，2026年还不算至暗时刻， 2027年供需缺口会放大。因为本轮涨价缺货并非简单的周期性波动，而是由AI带动的结构性变革。毕竟AI训练、推理产生的海量数据，对存储需求是前所未有的。
Executives from the leading storage controller company, Winbond Technology, insist that 2026 will not be the darkest hour, and that the supply-demand gap will widen in 2027. This round of price increases and shortages is not merely a simple cyclical fluctuation but a structural change driven by AI. After all, the massive data generated by AI training and inference presents unprecedented storage demands.

在此背景下，手机等传统存储大户将最为受伤。各大机构均纷纷下调了今年的出货预期。据预测，由于成本迅速上涨，预计手机市场销量将下降约10%，部分手机降幅最高将达30%。
In this context, traditional storage giants like mobile phones will be the most affected. Major organizations have all lowered their shipping forecasts for this year. It is predicted that, due to rapidly rising costs, mobile phone market sales will decline by about 10%, with some models seeing price drops of up to 30%.

面对手机厂商的成本阵痛，不少终端和存储厂商也开始走“性价比”路线，4GB运存等效8GB体验，加大国产存储颗粒采购力度。另外，面对AI重心从训练转向推理，国产厂商也在探索如何通过算法、设计以及封装等环节系统优化，在端侧AI实现用最低功耗，以最低时延跑出最优效果。
In response to the cost pain faced by mobile manufacturers, many terminal and storage manufacturers have also begun to adopt a “cost-performance” approach, providing 4GB of RAM that offers an equivalent experience to 8GB, and increasing procurement of domestic storage chips. Additionally, as the focus of AI shifts from training to inference, domestic manufacturers are also exploring how to achieve system optimization through algorithms, design, and packaging to realize optimal performance at the edge AI with the lowest power consumption and minimal latency.

国际存储原厂则更聚焦云侧方案，纷纷推出更先进的高性能存储方案：三星半导体加速推进PCIe接口的代际转换，今年将推出PCIe Gen6固态硬盘，甚至推进PCIe 7.0及未来PCIe 8.0的技术储备与产品预研；铠侠推进固态硬盘扩展，在DRAM和SSD之间插入 “专用KV Cache存储层（键值缓存存储层）”，来应对HBM扩展性与成本限制。
International storage manufacturers are focusing more on cloud-side solutions, launching more advanced high-performance storage solutions: Samsung Semiconductor is accelerating the generational transition of the PCIe interface, planning to launch PCIe Gen6 solid-state drives this year, and even advancing the technical reserves and product research for PCIe 7.0 and future PCIe 8.0; Kioxia is expanding solid-state drives by inserting a “dedicated KV Cache storage layer” between DRAM and SSDs to address HBM scalability and cost constraints.

作为本轮存储周期的超级买家，云服务厂商已经开始储备存储“性价比”方案。
As super buyers in this round of storage cycle, cloud service providers have already begun to prepare storage “cost-performance” solutions.

谷歌近期公布的压缩算法TurboQuant震惊市场，据称可将大型语言模型运行时的键值缓存内存占用减少至原来的约1/6、性能提升8倍。行业人士预计，谷歌的新技术或许能够缓解内存供应短缺的局面，从而有可能降低内存价格。在该消息下，本周全球存储股一度大幅下跌。
Google’s recent announcement of the compression algorithm TurboQuant has shocked the market, reportedly able to reduce the key-value cache memory usage during the operation of large language models to about 1/6 of the original, with an 8-fold performance increase. Industry insiders predict that Google’s new technology may alleviate the memory supply shortage situation, potentially lowering memory prices. Following this news, global storage stocks experienced a significant drop this week.

“这与DeepSeek出现之后英伟达股价下跌类似，长期来看，提高效率对存储是利好，AI对存储需求长期不会有大的改变。”国产存储龙头公司负责人向记者表示。
“This is similar to the drop in Nvidia’s stock price after the appearance of DeepSeek. In the long run, improving efficiency is beneficial for storage, and AI’s demand for storage will not change significantly in the long term,” said the head of a leading domestic storage company to reporters.

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