6.11 Friday BTC Evening Outlook As of the evening of June 12, the spot price of BTC remains in a narrow range around 63,500, fluctuating sideways with a 24-hour increase of about 2.3%. In the early morning, supported by the geopolitical easing between the US and Iran, it surged to a daily high of $63,929. After reaching this peak, the market gradually entered a technical correction phase. From a technical perspective, after the price surged, it faced resistance at a key upper pressure level. The short-term bullish momentum has weakened, with candlesticks showing a series of small doji and small bullish/bearish patterns. The moving average system is gradually flattening from an upward trend, providing immediate support. Trading volume has significantly decreased compared to the surge phase, indicating that both bulls and bears are temporarily on the sidelines, with no clear breakout momentum. The MACD indicator's red bars continue to shrink, and the fast and slow lines show signs of converging. The RSI has fallen back into a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold. The likelihood is that the market will continue to oscillate within this range tonight, with resistance still near the previous high, and support relying on the short-term moving averages. Trading suggestion: Watch for a rebound around 638, with $BTC a target of 620.

⏺The deal is: a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the USA consists of 14 points 1. Complete and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. Commitment by America to the principle of non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the country's sovereignty. 3. Full lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days. 4. USA's obligation to withdraw its forces from the area around Iran. 5. Resumption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, taking into account agreements with Iran. 6. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, as well as full access for Iran to its financial resources. 7. USA and its allies' commitment to present plans for the reconstruction of Iran totaling at least $300 billion. 8. 60-day negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the full lifting of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as UN Security Council resolutions and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions. 9. Confirmation of Iran's commitment under the NPT (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) not to develop nuclear weapons. 10. During negotiations, the USA commits not to increase its forces in the region or impose new sanctions. 11. Unblocking $24 billion of frozen Iranian funds within the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount should be accessible to Iran before negotiations begin. 12. Establishment of a control mechanism for the implementation of the agreement. 13. The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. 14. Final negotiations will not begin until half of the frozen funds are unblocked, oil sanctions against Iran are suspended, and the maritime blockade is lifted. The final agreement concerns only the fate of enriched uranium, the enrichment program, and the lifting of sanctions. Issues related to Iran's missile program and support for "resistance forces" are completely excluded from the agenda. The text still needs to be reviewed and refined by the relevant $SOL Iranian authorities.

$63,000 Bitcoin, are you scared? First look at the surface: terrible, indeed terrible. It has fallen 21% in the past month, halved from the high point. ETF net outflows continue, the Federal Reserve still plans to raise interest rates, Japan's interest rates are at a 31-year high. But look at the chart—$59k has not broken down, $61k has held, the 200-week moving average forms a strong bottom around $61k. The candlestick chart shows: the price touched the 9-year long-term upward trend line, RSI is hovering at low levels, volume isn't exploding but also not shrinking. First thing: ETF net outflows, but BlackRock is still increasing their holdings. Spot ETFs have been net outflowing for the past few days, with a $22.5 million outflow on June 11. But have you noticed—outflows are getting smaller. And BlackRock just submitted the final application for a Bitcoin income ETF, expected to launch next week. Second thing: The Extreme Fear Index is at 9, which is my favorite signal from 10 years of experience. Fear & Greed Index 9-17, extreme fear. In March 2020, during the pandemic crash, the index dropped below 10, BTC fell from $10k to $3,800. What happened afterward? A year later, it rose to $60k. In May 2021, the 519 event, the index dropped to 10, BTC fell from $65k to $29k. What happened afterward? Six months later, it rose to $69k. In 2022, after the FTX collapse, the index dropped to 10, BTC fell from $21k to $15k. What happened afterward? A year later, it rose to $70k. Every time the fear index hits extreme fear, it’s at the bottom zone. Third thing: A historic technical signal has appeared. Daily chart: BTC touched the 9-year long-term upward trend line. You read that right, 9 years. 2017, 2020, 2024—each time retracing this line, it’s the start of a bull market. As long as $61k holds, the initial rebound target is $65k, then $68,000-$70k. But don’t forget—the FOMC meeting next week (June 16-17) is a life-or-death decision. Bull-bear showdown, you decide. One side: Support from the 9-year long-term trend line, 100% success rate in history Extreme fear index at 9, bottom signal accumulating Halving effect still in play, supply shock delayed but not absent Institutions like BlackRock continue to accumulate Price around $54k, still above support, on-chain health is good The other side: May CPI year-over-year 4.2%, inflation stickiness exceeds expectations The Fed may hike rates or signal hawkish stance next week ETF short-term net outflows, sentiment weak Japan’s rate hikes + geopolitical pressures Key level at $63,400, just $2,400 away from the critical $61,000 line. Resistance above: $64,000-$66,000 → $68,000-$70k → $75,000 Support below: $61,000-$62,500 (strong bottom) → $59,800-$60k → $53,000-$55,000 (extreme) Short-term traders: Buy in batches at $61,000-$62,500, stop-loss at $59,500. First target $65,000, second target $67,000-$68,000. Leverage controlled within 3x, position no more than 20%. Reduce holdings before next week’s FOMC to hedge risks. Mid-to-long-term HODL: Current price or dip back to $58,000-$60,000 for batch accumulation. Hold until $100k+. Use spare funds, avoid leverage. Long-term believers: DCA on dips. This is your 4th experience with a “50% retracement.” The first 3 times, you regretted not buying enough. Don’t repeat that mistake this time. Risk management: Always keep 40% cash Stop-loss is not just for show; if it breaks below $60,000, reduce your position Pay attention to next week’s FOMC results Don’t be scared off by “extreme fear,” nor go all-in impulsively trying to “bottom-fish” Bitcoin now is just like March 2020—during the pandemic crash, everyone thought “the world is ending, Bitcoin is going to zero.” And what was the result? $3,800, the lowest point of that bull run. Bull markets aren’t without corrections, but every 50% retracement makes you think “this is the bear market.” At $61,000, you panic-sell, whales scoop up the chips. By the time you realize #我的Gate交易时刻 it, it’s already $70,000.