Stop overthinking whether US stocks are “at the top of the hill.” Someone always asks me: Has the US stock market already reached the top of the hill, and is it too late to jump in? In fact, the problem is fundamentally wrong from the start. People love to look at the market through linear thinking—either they think it’s at the top, or they think it’s on the hillside. But capital markets are not multiple-choice questions that are either high or low; they’re a probability game. For US broad-market indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, their long-term historical annualized returns have been steady at 8%-13%. Put simply, from a probability perspective: at any time, if you hold an index long-term, long-term returns will most likely beat bank deposits. Many people don’t know that being in cash also has a cost. Every day you stay out of the market, you miss the average returns that come from the market’s daily yield of two to three ten-thousandths. Let’s do quick math: being out of the market with $1 million for one day directly costs you $200-$300 in opportunity cost. The longer you stay out, the more returns you miss—this is an invisible loss that most people ignore. Many people can’t figure out one thing: Your monthly hard-earned salary, in essence, is you exchanging your time for human capital. And investing in a US stock index via dollar-cost averaging turns that hard-earned human income into stable financial assets. Saving in a bank, buying a home, buying gold, investing in an index—there’s no absolute right or wrong, only choices for how you store wealth. But it’s strange: people dare to hold low-interest deposits for the long term and get stuck with real estate, yet they don’t dare to hold US stock index assets that can continuously generate productive power. Here’s a truth you need to understand: cash paper money is the asset with the worst long-term returns. If you hold cash and do nothing for the long term, it only gets diluted little by little by inflation—your money shrinks the more you leave it there. Someone will push back: What if there’s a war or a black swan—what if US stocks crash? Honestly, in extreme crises, stocks may fall sharply in the short term, but paper money could potentially go to zero directly. Look at history: the Jinyuan securities and the Weimar mark—then you’ll understand how quickly cash can devalue and collapse in extreme environments, and it’s far more frightening than stocks. Cash is only suitable for short-term reserves. Keeping 1-3 years of living expenses is enough for emergencies, and it’s simply not meant for long-term savings and appreciation. Also, many people misunderstand my view and think I’m saying US stocks only go up and never go down. I’ve never said that. I long-term dollar-cost average and hold US stock indexes—not betting that they will certainly surge in the future, but for two very rational reasons: First, US stocks have the world’s longest, most complete, and most transparent trading history data. Their return patterns, risk fluctuations, and cost-effectiveness are the most reference-worthy among all markets; they’re replicable and verifiable. Second, it has mature market rules, improved corporate governance, and fully developed shareholder protection mechanisms, along with a continuously iterating innovation ecosystem. Its long-term returns are not luck—they’re supported by institutions plus the economic structure. In contrast, for China A-shares, Japanese stocks, and European stocks: either the historical data is incomplete, or the institutions and structures change midway. The certainty of future returns is far behind that of US stocks. So I choose US stocks as the long-term core asset—not because of faith, and not because I’m gambling on the future. It’s simply that among all currently available markets, it offers the best odds, the highest tolerance for mistakes, and the most suitable long-term decision for ordinary people. Investing doesn’t rely on feelings or prediction—it always relies on probability, data, and rational choices. $BTC $ETH #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4%

$BTC Watch for a potential rebound opportunity for the bulls. Everyone is watching for a breakdown, but I think it’s worth paying attention to possible rebound levels. The 4-hour long setup is still intact; although the daily chart is bearish, price has already reacted in the 64031 to 64061 range. The 15-minute RSI is around 54, so buyers may still have room to push higher. Also, the 15-minute trading volume has surged by nearly 4x, which does show signs of real buy-side inflows. You can consider entry around 64031 to 64061. Above that, you may see the area between 64157 and 64341. However, the market has uncertainty—if it breaks below 63898, be careful about the risk; don’t chase too aggressively.

July 18 evening Linmu big cake and second cake strategy analysis From observing short-term trends, during the afternoon to evening session the market fell into extreme sluggishness; prices stayed around the 64,000 integer level and the hourly-level mid-band, performing narrow-range, “weaving” style oscillations. Although the K-line bodies are extremely small, seemingly calm and steady, the 5-minute MACD fast and slow lines have remained stuck together below the zero axis, and trading volume has noticeably shrunk, indicating very weak buy-side follow-through. The main force is grinding down retail traders’ patience through this kind of “sticking to the line” movement while accumulating bearish momentum. It’s worth noting that the 64,200 area is clearly acting as resistance. After a brief reduced-volume consolidation, the market is expected to be unable to break through this resistance level; it will then choose to break down, bringing a pullback with strength and repair. For the evening session, it’s recommended to focus on high shorts; do not frequently trade within this narrow range. Trading ideas: Big cake: After a rebound to the 64,500-65,000 area is rejected, go short, targeting around 63,000-62,500 Second cake: After a rebound to the 1,860-1,890 area is rejected, go short, targeting around 1,800-1,760 #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 $BTC $ETH