$ETH is down but transactions reached an all time high = Fundamental divergence

ETH at $1,895—are you cutting your losses? First, look at the surface: weak, extremely weak. The 1,930-1,948 resistance zone has hit a wall three times, and been slammed back each time. Funding rates have fallen by over 30%, cooling leveraged longs. 24-hour volatility is under 1%, trading volume is shrinking, RSI is neutral at 50-55, and MACD is weak—the calm before the storm. First: Staked ETH has reached an all-time high, but you may have missed the point. 41.7 million ETH is locked in staking, accounting for 34% of the total supply—one-third of the circulating supply is locked up, reducing selling pressure and tightening supply. Although staking yields have been compressed, security is what they care about most. Whales are locking up their positions while you panic-sell at a loss. Second: Active addresses surged to 990k, yet the price fell. Active addresses rose to 870k-990k, a recent high—more and more people are using the network, yet the price keeps falling. Price down, volume up—this is a typical “bullish divergence.” The same signal appeared in March 2020, when ETH fell from 360 to 90 while active addresses reached a new high. Three months later, ETH rose to 600. Third: Tomorrow’s CPI—will it trigger a surge or a sell-off? The US July CPI will be released on August 12, with expectations of 3.4% year-on-year. Weak employment data previously reduced the likelihood of a rate hike. If CPI is moderate → BTC and ETH take off directly, breaking through 1,948 in one move If CPI exceeds expectations → another short-term dump to 1,850 or even 1,820, but that will be the last chance to get on board Macro is currently the biggest external variable, and CPI is the trigger. The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself On one side: Staked ETH at an all-time high of 41.7 million, with 34% of the supply locked Active addresses surging to 990k, with network usage exploding The ETH/BTC ratio is at a low, leaving enormous room for a relative recovery An initial double-bottom pattern has emerged around 1,850-1,870 On the other side: Three rejections at 1,930-1,948, with the bulls getting hammered Funding rates falling, cooling leveraged longs CPI uncertainty suppressing risk appetite If BTC weakens further, ETH will be dragged down Key levels Upside resistance: 1,930-1,948 → 2,000 (psychological threshold) → 2,100-2,200 Downside support: 1,860-1,870 → 1,820-1,850 → 1,750 Trading strategy Short-term traders: Try a small long position on a pullback to 1,865-1,880, with a stop-loss below 1,850 and a target of 1,920-1,940. A high-volume breakout above 1,948 can be chased, with a target of 2,000. Swing traders: Build positions in batches between 1,850-1,900, with a stop-loss at 1,800-1,820 and a target of 2,000-2,100, with a second target of 2,200+. Moderate CPI + ETF inflows would mark the beginning of the major uptrend. Long-term believers: Blindly dollar-cost average below 1,900. Staking lockups + ecosystem dominance + institutional allocation give it extremely high certainty over the medium to long term. The target for the end of 2026 is 3,000+, betting on the rate-cut cycle + a positive staking feedback loop. ETH’s current state— It has fallen 62% from 4,950 to 1,895, and you say it is in a bear market? Yet staked ETH is at an all-time high, active addresses are at 990k, and DeFi TVL still accounts for 55% of the global share. In a bear market, people watch the price; in a bull market, they watch on-chain data. When you see on-chain data roaring while the price remains silent—that is the calm before the storm. On the day 1,948 breaks through, you will realize: It was never that ETH was incapable—it was that you lost your nerve at the bottom every time. What is your ETH cost basis? On the day 1,948 breaks through, will you chase it? #Gate上线DOS瓜分Launchpool百万代币 #股票交易分享挑战 #Gate全额补偿异常波动爆仓用户 $BTC $ETH $SOL

8.11 Evening Market Overview: #ETH @T1 was reached precisely, yielding a 62-point profit; breakeven stop-loss, watching T2 ETH entered a short position at 1929 on the 6th. After five days, T1 automatically took profit for 62 points this morning. With the stop moved to breakeven and T2 in sight, there is no pressure ETH's T1 take-profit was set at 1867.69, and the lowest overnight wick reached 1866.14—a hair's breadth away, resulting in a precise exit! I don't know whether it was precise or not; following along and taking profits is what really matters; The market is currently moving within a narrow range, so you need to work on your mindset, learn to befriend time, and be a little more patient ETH remains in a narrow-range consolidation within the 1939–1847 box. The current K-line is in the middle of the range, so we just need to patiently wait for the market to develop—do not trade The box bottom at 1847 has not been broken by a candle body, and the upper resistance zone at 1929–1939 has not been broken through by a candle body. Therefore, we will continue using a sell-high, buy-low strategy Use low leverage to place a left-side long entry at 1847, add to the position at 1809, set a defense at 1777, with targets near 1900 and 1929 If you have no short position, continue using low leverage to place one lot for a left-side short entry at 1929, set a defense at 2011, with targets near 1867 and 1809 $ETH ‌ Friends passing by, please take a moment to follow, like, and comment in return—your support means the most to me. Thank you and much appreciation! The above information is for market analysis only and does not constitute trading execution; Follow me so you won't get lost. I bring you the latest information, updates, and price-level analysis every day, along with the wealth-making insights you're looking for. Remember to follow and like.