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Bubble Mart’s overseas expansion benefits have reached a phase of conclusion.

The story of going overseas is no longer appealing, market preferences have started to change, and in the future, what supports Bubble Mart’s valuation will be the continuous realization of performance.

Three to four years ago, due to the industry crisis caused by obstacles in the blind box sector, Bubble Mart’s performance began to stagnate, and the significant sell-off in the capital market caused the company’s stock price to plummet by 80% at one point.

Some media have commented that Bubble Mart built a “trendy toy empire” with a market value of HKD 150 billion from scratch in 10 years. However, it took only a year and a half for its value to drop from HKD 150 billion to less than HKD 30 billion.

Faced with internal and external challenges, Wang Ning made several attempts at that time.

Ultimately, his solution was - “going overseas.”

In 2023, at the company’s performance briefing, Wang Ning expressed his satisfaction, stating: “This year we expect overseas revenue to reach 1 billion yuan, and we are confident that next year our overseas business will exceed the entire group’s revenue before the IPO in 2019, equivalent to recreating a Bubble Mart.”

Thus, “recreating Bubble Mart overseas” became the new story Bubble Mart told the capital market, and it was widely recognized in the capital market as a new growth point that could help the company “break through.”

The overseas expansion benefits in the era of consumption ultimately saved Bubble Mart. The overseas concept not only reversed the company’s performance decline but also boosted the company’s stock price, with other companies like Miniso also enjoying this wave of benefits.

Entering 2024, Bubble Mart’s performance began to improve significantly, even showing an explosive growth trend. Financial reports indicated that Bubble Mart’s revenue in 2024 exceeded 10 billion, reaching 13.038 billion; net profit reached 3.125 billion yuan. When the imagination space for performance was opened, there was no upper limit to the market’s valuation imagination.

According to statistics, from the beginning of 2024 to August 2025, Bubble Mart’s stock price experienced a maximum increase of over 2100%, and its market value once exceeded HKD 450 billion. The surge in stock price made Bubble Mart’s actual controller, Wang Ning, the biggest beneficiary, as at his peak, his net worth surpassed 165 billion yuan, making him the new richest man in Henan.

Performance has been realized.

The successful breakthrough in the overseas market, coupled with the explosive increase in market value, has provided the capital market with sufficient imagination space regarding Bubble Mart’s globalization story.

However, valuation ultimately needs performance realization to come true. The shift in market investment preferences and the change in global capital trends have also brought this valuation game to an end. When “the story of going overseas” is no longer appealing, the concentrated realization of performance will accelerate investors’ withdrawal.

On March 25, Bubble Mart disclosed its financial report for 2025, which showed that the company achieved revenue of 37.12 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%. This is reportedly the first time the company’s revenue has exceeded the 30 billion yuan mark; the adjusted net profit was 13.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 284.5%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 308.8%; and the gross profit margin was 72.1%, compared to 66.8% in the same period last year, with multiple core indicators reaching historical highs.

Specifically, in 2025, Bubble Mart had 17 artist IPs with revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan. Among them, the THE MONSTERS series, belonging to Labubu, had revenue of 14.16 billion yuan, becoming the absolute core, with a year-on-year increase of 365.7%, accounting for as much as 38.1% of total revenue. In addition, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, MOLLY, DIMOO, Star People, and HIRONO achieved revenues of 3.54 billion yuan, 2.929 billion yuan, 2.897 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, 2.056 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan respectively during the reporting period.

From the perspective of regional markets, in 2025, the Americas market performed the brightest, with revenue increasing by 748.4% year-on-year; Europe and other regions saw growth of 506.3%; and the Asia-Pacific and mainland China markets grew by 157.6% and 134.6% respectively.

By the end of 2025, Bubble Mart had a total of 630 global stores, with a net increase of 109 stores throughout the year; 2637 operational robot stores, with a net increase of 165 robot stores, and the first batch of offline stores opened in Germany, Denmark, Canada, and the Philippines.

However, faced with this explosive performance report, the market did not provide a positive response and instead poured a bucket of cold water.

In the afternoon of March 25, following the opening, Bubble Mart’s stock price plummeted sharply, with an intraday decline of 22.51%; on March 26, Bubble Mart’s stock price did not stop falling but continued to decline significantly, ending the day with a decline of over 10%. Over the two days combined, the total stock price decline exceeded 30%, with a total transaction amount of 39.8 billion yuan, and the market value evaporated by over 89.1 billion yuan, equivalent to about 78.6 billion yuan.

So, why did Bubble Mart’s performance realize explosive growth while the capital market did not take it seriously?

Some analysts believe it is mainly because the Labubu series is too popular, overshadowing all other IPs. The market is worried that once the popularity of Labubu declines, the company may face a significant growth gap. After all, the popularity cycle of trendy toy IPs usually lasts three to five years, and even a classic IP like MOLLY still requires continuous iteration to maintain vitality.

Kanjian Finance believes that the core reason is that the capital windfall from going overseas has passed, and “the story of going overseas” is no longer appealing, which naturally weakens its attractiveness to the capital market. Additionally, with AI becoming a global epic trend, capital attention to the trendy toy sector will naturally decline.

Moreover, since 2024, Bubble Mart’s stock price has already accumulated significant gains, and it has now entered the capital realization phase, with the most typical signal being that from the end of April to early May 2025, Bubble Mart’s key investor, Fengqiao Capital, conducted a large-scale sell-off. According to reports, Fengqiao Capital sold a total of approximately 11.91 million shares of Bubble Mart, cashing out a total of 2.264 billion yuan, about 2.110 billion yuan.

After completing the sell-off, Fengqiao Capital’s Tu Zheng also expressed gratitude in a post. Meanwhile, the #泡泡玛特股份被创始股东高位清仓# topic also trended on social media.

“The story of going overseas” is no longer appealing.

Looking back, all the stories told by the capital market will ultimately reach the stage of performance realization.

In late August 2025, Bubble Mart’s stock price began to decline, and at that time, due to a significant drop, Bubble Mart also trended on social media. In the face of the intensive bearish attitude from overseas capital at that time, Bubble Mart used impressive performance to provide a strong counterattack.

However, it is noteworthy that Bubble Mart’s previous high valuation was based on the premise that the “overseas story” still had attraction. Kanjian Finance believes that as the complexity of operating in overseas markets increases, the strategy of going overseas is no longer a universal solution.

Therefore, the gradual clearing of valuation bubbles is an inevitable choice for the market. Kanjian Finance predicts that as the explosive growth in overseas markets gradually stabilizes, Bubble Mart’s performance growth rate will also decline accordingly.

At this performance briefing, Bubble Mart’s chairman and CEO Wang Ning stated that they aim to achieve a performance growth rate of no less than 20% in 2026.

Compared to the doubling performance growth rate of 2025, the performance guidance given by Wang Ning indeed created pessimistic expectations in the market.

Morgan Stanley once released a report stating that Bubble Mart is transitioning from a “explosive growth” stage over the past two years to a “sustainable growth” stage in the future.

From the current market situation, it is highly likely that the growth rate of overseas market performance will decline. Some foreign investment institutions even predict that in 2026, Bubble Mart’s domestic and overseas market revenue will decline.

Bubble Mart’s Chief Growth Officer, Wen De Yi, stated at the performance briefing that in 2025, overseas business accounted for nearly 50% of the company’s revenue share, and the future will focus on key layouts for tourist spots and flagship store projects. Bubble Mart will strengthen refined operations, implement a dual-track strategy centered on IP for globalization and group development, and focus on expanding markets in South Asia, Europe, and South America.

Kanjian Finance believes that with the Labubu family of products accounting for as much as 38.1% of revenue in 2025, such a high concentration of income means that if this series begins to decline in performance, the impact on the overall company’s performance will be significant, thus the market’s concerns are not without reason.

At the performance briefing, Wang Ning also stated that Labubu’s popularity has indeed driven the development of the entire company, but Bubble Mart does not rely solely on Labubu as its core IP. Even without Labubu’s performance, the company has still achieved rapid growth. He hopes the outside world can see more of Bubble Mart’s capability in IP operation and believes that the company’s IP operation experience will become increasingly mature.

In this regard, Kanjian Finance believes that once Labubu’s popularity declines and overseas business growth slows, the market will reevaluate Bubble Mart’s valuation. From the current market reaction, the answer is already very clear.

Zhongtai Securities released a report stating that due to the high uncertainty of blockbuster IPs, relying solely on a single blockbuster for performance growth is unlikely to achieve a higher valuation. The certainty of IP investment lies in users, and the user base is the foundation for platform companies’ business monetization and the core starting point for platform company valuations.

From this perspective, when the capital windfall of the “overseas story” comes to an end, the valuation bubble must be gradually digested through performance. In the future, as Bubble Mart’s globalization process continues to deepen, relying on solid performance to support valuation will be more prudent than merely “telling capital stories.” Therefore, this significant drop in stock price is both a challenge for Bubble Mart and a necessary path for the company to solidify its development foundation.