Toyota, Hyundai and Chinese automakers expected to be most impacted by Iran war

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Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles bound for shipment at the Port of Nagoya in Tokai, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.

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DETROIT — Toyota Motor, Hyundai Motor and Chinese automakers such as Chery face the most potential impact of non-domestic automakers from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, according to an analysis by Bernstein.

Those international automakers account for roughly a third of sales in the Middle East, according to the report, led by Toyota at 17%, Hyundai at 10% and Chery at 5%. In Iran specifically, Bernstein reports Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA lead, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.

Other Chinese carmakers also are expected to be impacted, as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. Bernstein, citing China export data, said the region accounted for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.

The Bernstein report notes that while sales in the region will be impacted, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices will have ripple effects across the global automotive industry.

“Closure of the Strait of Hormuz adds 10-14 days to transit times,” Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in a Wednesday investor note, adding “a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries.”

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Roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil travel through the strait every day, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. It’s also a “critical passage” for vehicle and parts shipments to the Middle East, Bernstein noted.

Bernstein said any effect on Japanese automakers “appears limited for now, but close monitoring of developments is still required.” It also said, of the European automakers, Chrysler and Jeep parent Stellantis “seems to have the largest exposure in light of its overall issues.”

“The impact of rising gasoline pump prices is already being seen in Stellantis’ 11% stock price slump since its close last Friday – making so sharp a pivot to gas guzzling HEMI V8 engines and writing off its electrification efforts seems particularly inauspiciously timed at the moment,” Lee wrote.

U.S. crude oil prices on Friday topped $90 per barrel, and retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have jumped nearly 27 cents in the last week through Thursday to $3.25 per gallon on average, according to the motorist group AAA.

Stellantis this week said it is “closely monitoring developments across the affected countries,” noting it’s “not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”

Toyota, in an emailed statement, said it does “not conduct business in Iran and do not have any resident employees there.” The company said it is “closely monitoring the situation and prioritizing the safety of our local resident employees in the Middle East and related parties.”

Hyundai and Chery did not immediately respond for requests for comment.

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