Federal Reserve masih harus menunggu lagi? Data CPI mungkin sulit menggoyahkan posisi menunggu pejabat

【区块律动】The Federal Reserve’s policy signals have been somewhat subtle lately. Official “mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos recently published an analysis, suggesting that the upcoming December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may not be enough to prompt the Fed to change its current wait-and-see stance.

What is his core point? It is that Federal Reserve officials want to see more solid evidence — that inflation needs to stabilize and continue to decline — before considering further rate cuts.

Let’s review recent actions: The Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate in the past three meetings, with the most recent being in December. Interestingly, their reason for doing so is not because inflation has fallen, but due to concerns about the labor market — fearing that employment data might decline faster than expected.

So, when can we expect to see another rate cut? Federal Reserve officials need to see new signals, either that the labor market is beginning to deteriorate noticeably, or that price pressures are truly easing. Especially the latter, which may require waiting a few months for inflation data to confirm. In short, this timeline isn’t very urgent.