The Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts this year has new changes. The adjustments in predictions by the five major investment banks this time reflect a subtle shift in their assessment of the economic outlook.

Citigroup has pushed the rate cut windows to March, July, and September, significantly later than previous expectations (January, March, September). Goldman Sachs expects two 25 basis point cuts in June and September, whereas earlier they planned for March and June. The pace adjustments of these two banks are actually consistent—both are delayed.

Barclays has a slightly different perspective, expecting rate cuts in June and December, looking into the end of the year. Morgan Stanley maintains expectations for June and September, aligning closely with Goldman Sachs. But the most noteworthy change is JPMorgan Chase's attitude shift—directly announcing no rate cuts in 2026, but instead expecting a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027. This indicates that some Wall Street institutions are already mentally preparing for longer-term tightening.

Overall, from the collective optimism of rate cuts in January to the current widespread postponement, and even expectations of no cuts or hikes, this reflects a reassessment of inflation stickiness and the resilience of the employment market. For the crypto space, the Federal Reserve's policy path directly impacts the attractiveness of risk assets, and this change is worth continuous monitoring.