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Recently, many friends running prediction market Bots have been complaining about infrastructure issues. Based on my recent practical experience, I want to share some common pitfalls that can easily cause failures and possible solutions.
**Connection stability** is the first major pitfall. When collecting historical data or real-time market data, WebSocket (WS) often disconnects suddenly or pushes incomplete data, directly leading to gaps in the order book data. I experienced this myself on a Tokyo server—my Bot placed orders based on incomplete order book data, which greatly increased risk. Later, I thought of using REST API polling as a backup solution, which finally helped control this problem. Of course, this also involves server and program design aspects, and isn't entirely the fault of the platform.
**State machine + multi-source verification** is the hard-earned principle I finally understood. During strategy execution, if the API encounters issues, it can easily cause major failures. Therefore, it’s essential to use a state machine to monitor orders throughout the process (placing order → confirmation → matching → on-chain settlement), with multiple alert layers: if an order is stuck in Pending longer than expected, if the order book suddenly jumps, or if slippage exceeds the threshold, any of these triggers should immediately stop new orders and close risk positions. Additionally, use both WS and API for double verification, combined with on-chain events and The Graph subgraph queries for cross-validation. Only then can you be confident.
**Network latency is the real ceiling**. Some think microsecond-level delays in program logic are the bottleneck, but that’s far from the truth. The real choke point is network and server round-trip latency. I measured over 200 milliseconds between Japanese nodes, and in high-frequency competitive markets, this disadvantage can be fatal.
Overall, prediction market opportunities are indeed plentiful, but the infrastructure is still in the tuning phase. Instead of focusing on aggressive profits, it’s better to prioritize defense—capital preservation is the primary goal, especially considering future airdrop expectations.
Speaking of multi-source verification, it is indeed the key to breaking the deadlock. I agree with the defensive approach.
200ms latency can be fatal, which is why some people always lose when running bots.
State machine monitoring + multiple alerts are the way to survive; everything else is nonsense.
The primary goal of capital preservation is correct. Airdrops still have opportunities, so there's no need to rush for quick profits and get wrecked.