Recently, there has been widespread speculation about interest rate cuts in the market, but do you know? A top global asset management firm recently poured cold water on that idea—before 2026, the Federal Reserve will not be making large-scale monetary easing.

Does that sound harsh? This is exactly the most surreal part of the current situation. On one side, retail investors and hot money are celebrating the "era of rate cuts," while on the other side, the institutions managing the largest funds worldwide are quietly calling a halt. This is not market rumor; it’s an obvious split in expectations.

Why is this happening? Simply put, inflation has not truly been subdued. As long as inflation still has some warmth, the Fed’s hands are tightly bound. If the data doesn’t look good, don’t expect them to ease up.

What does this mean for us?

First and most directly—don’t be fooled by short-term market movements. The current rebound may have already over-anticipated rate cuts. If the data comes in below expectations again, the market could turn around at any moment. Price swings in coins like ETH, ZEC, DOGE could become even more intense.

Second, cash remains the most solid asset. Instead of going all-in, it’s better to keep some bullets in hand. The high-interest-rate environment might last much longer than everyone thinks. Holding cash or short-term bonds can provide stable returns and help you sleep peacefully.

Most importantly, every economic data point has become a landmine. Next month’s inflation report, employment figures, CPI data—any of these could trigger a market explosion. Because the current Fed is data-driven, with no preset stance, it’s all about how reality unfolds.

This reflects a deeper change. The rules of the game after the pandemic have been completely altered. We can’t expect a big wave of rate cuts all at once; instead, we should be prepared for interest rates to oscillate at relatively high levels. Inflation is stubborn, and the Fed dares not easily surrender. The market must get used to this new normal.

Smart investors are now adjusting their strategies. It’s not about aggressive all-in moves or hiding in fear, but about finding opportunities amid volatility and maintaining rationality amid disagreements. When red signals appear, stay calm; when green signals appear, don’t be greedy.

Ultimately, the market always swings between two emotional extremes, but real money always flows to those who see the situation clearly in advance. In this round, what is your choice?