$63.8k BTC, and nobody is talking about it anymore? Look at the surface first: a pile of bearish factors, but the price hasn’t collapsed. It rose 0.4% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from the 62k support level to 63.8k. It’s down 27% YTD and nearly half of its 126k ATH. The 62k-62,800 range has been hammered four times without breaking. The base is being solidified, but the breakout still needs one final push. First: Strategy is selling, but clickbait headlines have scared you senseless. Saylor’s company sold another 1638 BTC at an average price of $64k, cashing out $105 million for preferred stock dividends and buybacks. Media headline: “MicroStrategy Sells Bitcoin Again!” Scary? But look closely—Strategy holds around 450k BTC in total, so this sale amounted to less than 0.4%. Saylor himself has repeatedly emphasized that he has never sold a single sat. Second: One bug scared the entire market, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. A Coldcard hardware wallet firmware RNG vulnerability allowed cold-wallet seeds to be derived, with approximately $70 million-$100 million stolen. Sounds terrifying? But this has nothing to do with BTC held on exchanges or stored in mainstream software wallets. This is an issue affecting a specific batch of a specific hardware wallet, not a breach of the Bitcoin network. Third: The macro environment is the real “big boss.” The federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. The July FOMC hawkishly held rates steady, while the market is pricing in a 67% probability of a rate hike in September. Core PCE remains stuck at 3.3%-3.7%. A strong dollar means a weak BTC. Tight liquidity leaves risk assets struggling to breathe. The August 7 nonfarm payrolls report, mid-month CPI, and month-end Jackson Hole—each of these three events could make BTC move $2,000-$3,000 in an instant. But the market has already priced in the 67% rate-hike probability. If the data comes in soft, BTC could take off; if it comes in hot, it would merely hammer 62k once again. Key levels Upside resistance: 64,500-65,000 (50-day EMA) → 66,000-67,000 (trendline + previous high) Downside support: 62k-62,800 (tested 4 times) → 60,000 → 58,000 Short term: If 63,500-63,800 holds, take a small long position, targeting 64,500-65,000, with a stop-loss below 62,800. If a rebound to 64,200-64,500 stalls on declining volume, take a small short position, targeting 63,000-62,500, with a stop-loss at 64,800. Medium term: Wait for the August 7 employment data. Soft data + ETF inflows → add to longs and target 66,000-68,000. Hot data + rising rate-hike expectations → reduce positions or hedge, keeping an eye on 60,000 support. If the daily close holds above 65,000 with increased volume, chase the move toward 67,000; if 62,000 breaks, get out first. Position discipline: Risk per trade ≤1-2% of total capital Keep perpetual-futures leverage below 5-10x Don’t chase pumps or dump into declines; spot positions never need to panic August seasonality is weak (historical median -7%); don’t go all-in You think 63,800 is “barely alive” now, but one day it will suddenly move above 67,000, and you’ll be asking, “Can I still chase it?” BTC is still the same BTC. What has changed is your patience. 62,000 has been hammered four times without breaking—at this level, it failed to break for the fourth time, but what about the fifth? When a high-volume bullish candle pierces through 65,000, you’ll realize that it wasn’t that there was no market—it’s that you kept dying right before the launch.#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #Gate储备金率117% #Strategy再售1637枚BTC并回购STRC $BTC $ETH $SOL

Five consecutive intraday wins! Shorted at 4064, exited at 4047, capturing a $17 move and $1,614 in profit! $XAU $SOL #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6

Looking at Sandisk’s 4-hour candlestick trend, it remains suppressed within the descending channel, with the previous high failing to form an effective breakout, indicating that the overall bearish structure has yet to reverse. Under these conditions, following the main trend and looking for shorting opportunities on rebounds is more prudent from a risk-reward perspective. It has currently rebounded to the area slightly above the channel’s midline and is gradually approaching the upper resistance level. Breaking directly through the previous high of 1433 will be difficult. On the one hand, technical pressure from the channel’s upper boundary remains evident; on the other hand, although last night’s rebound of nearly 200 points was considerable, trading volume failed to increase accordingly, making it a typical low-volume rise. This indicates limited willingness among sidelined funds to chase the rally. Although there was dip-buying at lower levels, buying support at higher levels was clearly insufficient. Therefore, continue to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies, waiting for signs of resistance at key pressure levels before entering and establishing short positions $BTC $ETH $USDC $SOL #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6 #Strategy再售1637枚BTC并回购STRC #半导体ETF罕见霸榜资金流前三