A 14% drop on Wednesday was called an “earnings disaster,” while a 6% rise on Thursday was called “all the bad news being priced in”—the same SpaceX, but two different groups at work On Wednesday night, you saw SpaceX’s first earnings report— Revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and exceeding market expectations. Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $540 million. But AI capital expenditures surged 550% year over year to $18.37 billion, nearly 40% above analysts’ expectations. The stock plunged directly after hours, falling 14% the next day. The market’s verdict was: “It’s burning money too aggressively and doesn’t deserve this valuation.” On Thursday, 911.5 million locked-up shares were unlocked. What does that mean? Tradable shares surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion, creating nearly $100 billion in potential selling pressure. The media was flooded with headlines—“A $200M Unlock Flood Is Coming,” “SpaceX’s Most Dangerous Day.” And then? The stock rose 6.14% to close at $114.92. Full-day trading volume reached 255 million shares, the highest in a month and a half. The same company that fell 14% on Wednesday rose 6% on Thursday. What exactly happened? First, Wednesday’s 14% plunge was itself the “unlock.” Two hundred million shares traded in a single day, already flushing out everyone who wanted to run. Market participants had figured it out long ago—the shorts weren’t betting on a collapse in fundamentals; they were betting on insiders selling heavily after the unlock. But insiders barely sold, leaving the shorts stunned. Second, short positioning was too crowded, and a short squeeze was ready to erupt. As of Wednesday’s close, short positions accounted for 36% of the float, with more than $9 billion in unrealized profits. When the market didn’t fall at Thursday’s open, were the shorts panicking? Of course. Covering means buying, and buying pushes the stock price higher. Third, Wall Street is voting with real money. Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 price target, while JPMorgan raised its target from $225 to $240. At least six brokerages maintained buy ratings. The Morgan Stanley analyst’s exact words were: “SpaceX is a rare generational compounder.” Even the options market is betting that the bottom is in—one institutional trader sold $90 puts while buying $220 calls, betting that over the next ten months the stock will not fall 20% and may even double. But don’t celebrate too soon. This is not the end. SpaceX has adopted a nine-stage staggered unlock mechanism. August was only the first wave, with multiple additional batches of shares to be unlocked over time. The biggest landmine comes in June 2027—6.4 billion shares held by Musk will be unlocked then. The stock is still below its $135 IPO offering price. The fact that the unlock did not trigger a decline does not mean it won’t fall later. The supply shock has merely been delayed, not eliminated. To be frank— Are the people who criticized AI spending on Wednesday the same people who shouted “all the bad news is priced in” on Thursday? No. Short-term capital sold on Wednesday, while long-term believers bought on Thursday. Retail investors made net purchases of $22.7 million during the first hour of Wednesday’s plunge—in their eyes, aggressive investment in AI is not negative news but a signal that the probability of becoming a long-term winner is rising. Institutions became cautious because of the surge in capital expenditures, while retail investors viewed heavy investment as the upfront cost of future dominance. The same earnings report, interpreted in two different ways. How should SPCX be viewed from here? In the short term, the negative impact of the unlock has temporarily landed, and relatively strong marginal buying support emerged around $105–$110. But over the long term, three things will truly determine the stock price: Whether Starlink can continue generating cash—Starlink revenue was $4.3 billion in the second quarter, making it the only profitable segment, while its user base doubled to 12 million. Whether AI investment can be converted into revenue—AI business revenue surged 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, but it is still losing $1.26 billion. More than half of Morgan Stanley’s price target comes from its valuation of the AI business. Whether Starship can progress on schedule—the space business is still losing $540 million, while R&D investment continues to rise. You panicked during Wednesday’s 14% plunge and experienced FOMO during Thursday’s 6% rise. But the people who truly make money are those who see signals of a bottom during panic and identify the location of the next landmine during the celebration.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 $BTC $ETH $SPCX

Ethereum is entering a phase where more traders are using leverage instead of buying with their own money. The leverage ratio has reached its highest level so far. At the same time the amount of ETH available for trading keeps getting lower. This means many traders are holding large positions while there is less liquid supply in the market. Funding rates are still close to normal. This shows that traders are not strongly bullish or bearish. Instead many positions are building at the same time. When this happens even a small price move can force many traders to close their positions. That can create fast moves in both directions and increase short term volatility. At the same time there is another side of the story. Large investors are still locking a big amount of ETH into staking. Staked ETH is not meant for quick trading. It shows that these investors believe in Ethereum for the long run and are willing to keep their coins locked instead of selling them. The Ethereum Foundation also moved most of its ETH into self custody instead of sending it for sale. This looks more like careful treasury management than a plan to sell. Right now Ethereum has two different forces. Leverage can create sharp price swings in the short term. Long term holders continue to show confidence by staking and keeping their ETH safe. That does not remove the risk of volatility but it shows that long term belief in the network is still strong. $ETH

$ETH ‌ LONG 📈 ETH continues to defend a critical support level despite short-term volatility. The overall trend remains constructive, with buyers positioned for a breakout toward higher resistance. Leverage: 10x–15x Entry Zone (EP): 1,890 – 1,905 Take Profit: 🎯 TP1: 1,930 🎯 TP2: 1,975 🎯 TP3: 2,030 🎯 TP4: 2,100 Stop Loss (SL): 1,860 Risk Management: Lock partial gains at TP1 and trail the remaining position. #MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen #UnitreeIPOPrice150.80Yuan #NFPNightSetsTheDirection