Setelah Federal Reserve menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin, data opsi mengungkapkan ekspektasi pasar yang sebenarnya

【链文】The Federal Reserve just announced a 25 basis point rate cut and restarted the purchase of $40 billion in short-term government bonds. This move looks very dovish, theoretically injecting liquidity into the market. But honestly, it’s still too early to talk about a market bull restart.

Christmas is coming, and the annual delivery is just around the corner. During this period, liquidity in the crypto market has generally been poor. Trading volume is not rising, and there’s no motivation to push prices up.

Just look at the data from the options market — more than half of the options positions are piled up by the end of December. Bitcoin’s biggest pain point is stuck at the $100,000 mark, while Ethereum is at $3,200. The implied volatility across various maturities this month is trending downward, indicating that everyone’s expectations for volatility are weakening.

Even more interesting is that the Skew indicator has been consistently negative. What does that mean? It means the price of put options is significantly higher than that of call options with the same Delta. This reflects two signals: first, the overall market is relatively stable, and covered call strategies have become mainstream; second, more people are using puts to hedge against downside risk.

To summarize the current situation: market sentiment is subdued, liquidity is poor, and options traders are generally betting on a slow decline. Of course, we should also beware of sudden positive news that could trigger a reversal, although the likelihood of that is not high.