Fed Rate Cut Impact on Crypto Markets


Market Expectations & Price Action
• Markets pricing 89% probability of September Fed rate cut, with potential for 25-50 basis point reduction
• BTC trading near $65,000 after 16% post-halving rebound; ETH testing 2025 high at $3,882
• Increased trading volumes and capital inflows reflect heightened risk appetite ahead of policy shift
Technical Levels & Trading Outlook
• ETH faces critical $4,000 resistance with potential October range between $3,977-$4,815
• BTC needs to break $67,000 to establish path toward $75,000
• JPMorgan warns of potential "sell the news" scenario while October VIX futures signal elevated uncertainty
• Strategic approach: Consider scaling into positions pre-announcement while maintaining hedges
Regulatory & Sentiment Factors
• Fed's dismantling of "novel activities" supervision program signals potential easing of institutional crypto engagement restrictions
• Square community sentiment shows cautious optimism but concerns about sustainability if economic data deteriorates
• Key monitoring points: Post-decision liquidity flows, on-chain activity, and upcoming economic indicators
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BTC1.35%
ETH3.11%
DOGE5.83%
GUSD0.02%
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