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Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a clear structural differentiation. Bitcoin faced resistance after reaching $112,500 and failed to break through the key resistance level of $113,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum, although it briefly rebounded to $4,580, quickly pulled back, indicating insufficient upward momentum. This market differentiation reflects investors' cautious attitude during the intensive release of non-farm employment data.
As Bitcoin attempts to challenge the technical resistance level, the capital diversion phenomenon of Ethereum weakens the overall market's upward momentum, making it difficult for the market structure to break through. The core focus of the market is on the upcoming non-farm payroll benchmark change data, which will have a significant impact on market expectations.
The extent of data revision will directly affect the intensity of interest rate cut expectations. The market generally expects the upcoming benchmark revision to lower the non-farm employment data from April 2024 to March 2025. If the actual revision exceeds 700,000, it may strengthen the market's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, potentially pushing Bitcoin to break through the $113,000 resistance level. Conversely, if the revision is below 500,000, the market may shift toward a more conservative interest rate cut expectation, which will increase the technical selling pressure on Bitcoin.
In addition, the job market is currently showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In August, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Coupled with the downward revision of June data to -13,000, these weak figures correspond with the declining trend in job vacancies, reflecting the overall weakness of the job market.
In this complex market environment, investors need to closely monitor changes in non-farm data, as it not only affects the Crypto Assets market but may also have a profound impact on the overall financial market. With the release of the data, we may see new fluctuations and adjustments in the market.