Ethereum (ETH) is currently hovering around $4300, and the market is at a critical turning point. The $4350-$4450 range is not only an important technical resistance but also a watershed for market sentiment.

From a technical analysis perspective, this area coincides exactly with the 20-day moving average and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. Meanwhile, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate that bullish momentum is weakening, and the trading volume in the short term is insufficient to support a breakout. If ETH cannot break through this range in time, the likelihood of a pullback will significantly increase.

In terms of macroeconomics, the latest non-farm payroll data shows that only 22,000 jobs were added, far below market expectations. This weak employment data has reinforced market expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, putting pressure on the dollar. However, more attention should be paid to the benchmark revision data to be released on September 9. If the employment data is further revised downward, it could lead to a sharp decline in market risk appetite.

Overall, if ETH cannot break through the $4350-$4450 range in the near future, considering the risks of macroeconomic data corrections and the divergence signals from technical indicators, it is very likely to enter a correction phase in the medium term (1-2 months), with potential adjustment target range possibly between $3600-$2700.

On the contrary, if ETH can break through this key range with high trading volume support, then the upward trend is expected to continue, and the next target price may be in the range of $4750-5000.

Investors should closely monitor ETH's performance in this critical price range, while also paying attention to the upcoming economic data, as these factors will jointly determine ETH's direction in the short term. Regardless of how the market changes, maintaining a rational and cautious investment attitude is always a wise choice.