The recently released non-farm employment data has triggered significant fluctuations in the market, and expectations regarding the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy have also changed accordingly. After the data was released, market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September suddenly rose, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut jumping from 0% to 11.7%. At the same time, expectations for the October monetary policy meeting also changed significantly, with the likelihood of maintaining the interest rate unchanged at only 0.4%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate cuts of 25 and 50 basis points reached 36.2% and 63.4% respectively.

The market reaction triggered by this data was quite dramatic. In the initial phase, due to the non-farm data being below expectations, the market generally believed that the likelihood of a rate cut in September had increased, leading to a rise in the market. However, investors later realized that the significantly lower-than-expected data might indicate a deterioration in economic conditions, triggering a decline in the market.

This reaction reflects the complexity of investor psychology. They are worried that overly positive employment data may lead to a tightening of monetary policy, while also fearing that excessively negative data could signal an economic recession. This ambivalence stems from a desire for greater returns.

However, rational analysis indicates that the most likely scenario is that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, rather than 50 basis points. Subsequently, there may be another cut of 25 basis points in October.

Meanwhile, important news has emerged from the Ethereum ecosystem. The Ethereum Foundation has completed the sale of 10,000 ETH, which means that the selling pressure in the market has eased. This news could provide some support for the ETH price.

Overall, the current market is under the dual influence of monetary policy expectations and the development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and investors need to closely monitor the interaction of these factors and their potential impact on the market.