#Gate Square Qixi Celebration# ⚠️ || False Breakouts on Both Bitcoin & Ethereum: What's Really Going On?

Market Recap
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $117,000 following Powell's hint at rate cuts, only to collapse back near $110K after a massive whale sale of 24,000 BTC triggered liquidations and sentiment shifts. As of August 26, 2025, BTC sits around $110K, down ~4% from its weekly high.
Ethereum (ETH) briefly reached a record high near $4,954, then quickly retraced to around $4,400–$4,600, still maintaining strong year-to-date gains (~31%).
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Why These Are Classic False Breakouts
Bitcoin:
The rally above $117K was swiftly reversed, fitting the false breakout pattern—luring in bulls before retreating.
Chart patterns show BTC trapped within a pennant; breaking above then falling back inside is textbook false breakout behavior.
Ethereum:
ETH's break above $4,900 was short-lived, quickly giving way to pullbacks. Consolidation now lies in a range between ~$4,400–4,800.
Analysts warn that false breakouts are common in such volatile, liquidity-chasing conditions.
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Technical & Trading Strategy Insights
Understanding False Breakouts
False breakouts often trap emotion-driven traders—those entering too late—while professionals use the move to reverse price direction.
For Bitcoin:
A 2025 pennant setup shows BTC bouncing back after a fake breakout, possibly signaling bullish continuation—but only if staying above the lower pennant boundary.
If BTC closes below the long-term uptrend line (and pennant base), it risks a deeper correction — even below $100K.
For Ethereum:
Key levels to watch:
Support: $4,440 (78.6% Fib), then $4,300 (full retracement)
Resistance: ~$4,950–5,000.
Strategy ranges:
Aggressive Long: Entry $4,600–4,650, stop below $4,550, TP up to $5,500–5,800.
Conservative Long: Wait for 4H close above $5,000 and confirm retest as support.
Use multiple timeframes, volume spikes, and breakout confirmation (e.g. 4H close) to minimize false breakout risks.
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What to Watch Now
Asset Key Zones Indicators to Monitor
BTC Resistance: ~$117KSupport: ~110K–113K Volume, daily close above support or breakdown, whale activity
ETH Resistance: ~$4,950–5,000Support: ~$4,440 / 4,300 Volume, 4H candle confirmation, Fib/MAs, liquidity clusters
Volume confirmation is essential before trusting any breakout.
Macro factors remain influential—Fed's tone, dollar strength, ETF flows, USD demand.
Positive longer-term outlooks exist: Bernstein projects BTC could rise to $200K, though skeptics expect $140K–150K peaks. Institutional interest, ETF inflows, regulatory tailwinds play in too.
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Final Thoughts
BTC and ETH are currently trapped in classic false breakout territory—brief surges reversed quickly, leaving traders whipsawed. For those looking for the next move:
Exercise patience & discipline
Wait for confirmed breakouts with volume support
Maintain tight risk management: stop-losses, position sizing, partial profit-taking
Watch macro signals closely—Federal Reserve tone changes could spark the next catalyst.
$BTC $ETH
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