The current state of the cryptocurrency market has sparked quite a bit of discussion, especially when comparing this bull run to previous ones. Many investors tend to rely on a single indicator to predict market direction, such as technical analysis, market sentiment, or cycle theory. While the notion that the second year after a Bit halving is typically seen as the end phase of a bull run has its validity, over-reliance on this view may lead to misjudgments.

Looking back at the bull run of 2021, we can see the dual impact of the halving cycle and the macroeconomic environment. At that time, the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy drove the market up, while high inflation and improved employment rates by the end of the year led the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate hikes, perfectly aligning with the end of the bull run, creating a perfect fit between cyclical and macro factors.

However, the current market situation is significantly different from the end of 2021. Although some analysts still predict a bear market based on the "second year after halving" theory, they overlook the changes in the macro environment. We are now in a rate cutting cycle, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates until 2026, which means the market can still benefit from the favorable policies brought by the easing.

The market environment in 2025 may become more complex. Bitcoin may reach new highs, and the upgrades of Ethereum will also gradually progress, but the performance of other cryptocurrencies may not be as strong as in previous years, which has caused some cracks in traditional cycle theories.

In the face of such a complex situation, investors can consider three strategies:

1. Strictly follow the cycle theory, gradually reduce positions after Bitcoin and Ethereum reach new highs, and maintain a cautious attitude towards other encryption currencies.

2. Pay attention to macroeconomic indicators, continue to hold mainstream encryption currencies, moderately allocate other tokens, and consider cashing out profits only after interest rate hike signals appear.

3. Adopt a hybrid strategy and manage the investment portfolio in layers. Retain a portion of Bitcoin and Ethereum for long-term holding, while flexibly operating other encryption currencies to respond to potential macroeconomic changes.

Regardless of the strategy chosen, it is important to maintain continuous attention to the market and timely adjust investment plans to adapt to the ever-changing encryption currency market. While seizing opportunities in a bull run, one must also be vigilant about potential risks and做好风险管理.