📍Powell at Jackson Hole did not make a clear statement, but the message of "policy has tightened enough" and the assessment that "the labor market is balancing" indicate that the Fed has opened the door for the possibility of rate cuts in September.

Therefore, the biggest obstacle ahead is only the employment report on September 6.
- If unemployment remains at 4.2%, new jobs over 70k, and the adjusted data is not too negative → the Fed may try to continue maintaining the interest rate (the probability is quite low).
- If the labor market continues to decline → there is a high likelihood that the Fed will cut rates immediately in the September FOMC.

📌 Major Wall Street financial institutions agree on the scenario of "at least 2 cuts". The basis for this is that the labor market will show further weakness in the last months of the year.

📌 The Fed still wants to suppress inflation for as long as possible, therefore suddenly cutting 50bps could shock the market:
- Cut 25bps when data remains stable → signal of easing, risk-on market.
- Cut 25–50bps after the economic data is too bad → the market may react risk-off due to recession concerns.

September is almost certainly the turning point. However, economic data and the Fed's actions could change market expectations which are currently risk-on. One to two years ago, the market continuously revolved around the theme of "hard landing"/"soft landing" when the Fed had not yet cut rates. Now it can be said with certainty that the Fed has had a "soft landing", but where will the Fed cut rates to?