Toncoin (TON) price prediction: short-term pressure vs long-term potential, can it break through 4.2 dollars to open the pump channel?

Toncoin (TON) is favored by the market for its long-term potential, given Telegram's user base of 900 million. Analysts predict its price could potentially reach $10 or even $50. However, short-term technicals and on-chain indicators show short positions are dominant: TON has failed to follow Bitcoin and Ethereum to set new highs, with a bearish weekly trend and the CMF indicator consistently in negative territory reflecting capital outflow. Whether the key resistance level at $4.2 can turn into support will be an important signal for the recovery of TON's price.

TON Long-term Potential: Ecosystem Integration Drives Growth

• Unique Ecological Niche: As the only blockchain deeply integrated with Telegram, TON serves as the backend infrastructure for this social platform, supporting Telegram Premium payments and creator revenue settlements.
• User Conversion Potential: Telegram has a massive user base of 900 million. If we can successfully convert some of these users to use the TON ecosystem, it will significantly increase the demand for the token.
• Future Value Expectations: Analysts predict that with the growth of DApps on the TON chain, increased staking activities, and sustained ecosystem adoption, the price of TON coin is expected to move towards $10. If it successfully establishes a leading position in Web3 messaging services, it may challenge the $50 target by 2030.

Short-term dilemma: Technical and on-chain data under pressure

(Source: Santiment)

• Performance Lags Behind the Market: Despite Bitcoin and Ethereum recently hitting new highs, TON has performed poorly since reaching its historical high of $8.25 in June 2024. After rebounding to $3.56 at the end of July, it lacks momentum and has failed to keep up with the rise of mainstream altcoins since March.
• On-chain data contradiction signals:
  • Growth of Holding Addresses: Santiment data shows that the number of on-chain holding addresses continues to rise steadily, currently around 37,000 (as of the time of writing).
  • Insufficient accumulation willingness: Since late June, the average coin age has been fluctuating horizontally, indicating a lack of broad accumulation behavior across the network in the past two months.
  • Profit margin shrinking: The MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) ratio barely maintains a positive value, even as the coin price drops by nearly 3 dollars, reflecting that recent holders have a stronger tendency to take profits than to increase their positions.
• Key Technical Resistance: The weekly chart shows that the long-term trend of TON remains bearish. The consolidation phase since March, accompanied by a negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), highlights the continuous outflow of funds from the market. Bulls need to convert the $4.2 swing high into a solid support level to establish a higher-level continuous upward trend.

Market Outlook: Breakout Signal Awaiting Confirmation

(Source: TradingView) Current technical and on-chain indicators show that Toncoin may continue to face pressure in the coming weeks. The market needs to closely monitor:

1. Key level defense at $4.2: Successfully breaking through and holding above this resistance level is the primary technical signal to reverse the downtrend.
2. On-chain accumulation signs: The increase in average coin age and significant improvement in MVRV will indicate a restoration of holder confidence.
3. Ecosystem Adoption Acceleration: The effective conversion rate of Telegram users to the TON ecosystem and the on-chain activity (such as DApp usage, staking growth) are the core fundamentals that support long-term value.

Conclusion: Toncoin is at a crossroads of potential and pressure. Leveraging Telegram's vast user base, its long-term narrative has great imaginative space. However, short-term technical weakness, capital outflows, and key resistance levels pose real challenges. Cryptocurrency investors need to focus on the validity of the breakout above $4.2 and the emergence of on-chain accumulation signals to determine whether TON can break free from the current consolidation pattern and open the upward channel towards the $10 target. Before large-scale adoption within the ecosystem is realized, the market may need to remain patient.