Many investors believe that the Fed's interest rate cuts will inevitably trigger a bull run in the crypto assets market, but historical data provides a different answer. Let's review the past few bull runs and examine the real relationship between interest rate changes and Bitcoin prices.

In 2017, when Bitcoin surpassed $19,800, the Fed was in a rate hike cycle with an interest rate range of 1.25%-1.50%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000, at which point interest rates had been maintained at near-zero levels for a long time, and in fact, the real rate cuts had begun as early as March 2020.

In 2023, Bitcoin rebounded to $73,000, still in an interest rate hike cycle. In 2024, Bitcoin rose from $74,000 to $123,000, with interest rates remaining relatively unchanged during that period. This data suggests that expectations of interest rate cuts may boost market sentiment, but the cuts themselves do not necessarily lead to an immediate price increase. In fact, real market explosions often occur during periods of relatively stable interest rates.

The intrinsic driving force of the crypto assets market comes from the explosive growth of applications. The rise of Ethereum in 2017, the prosperity of NFTs and GameFi in 2021, as well as the entry of institutional investors were all significant milestones. Recently, expectations surrounding ETFs have become a new growth driver.

The essence of lowering interest rates is to respond to economic weakness and reduce debt costs. For the Crypto Assets market, the influx of new funds in a lower interest rate environment may not necessarily be large, and may instead lead to existing funds becoming more cautious.

Therefore, the bull run of Crypto Assets is not directly triggered by interest rate cuts, but is driven by innovative applications and market expectations. Interest rate cuts are merely a background factor, and the real market climax often occurs before the interest rate cuts arrive.

Investors should pay more attention to technological breakthroughs within the industry, the landing of new applications, and changes in the regulatory environment, rather than overly relying on macroeconomic policies. Only by deeply understanding the intrinsic driving forces of the market can one seize opportunities in the highly volatile Crypto Assets market.