Ripple unlocking 100 million XRP triggers market panic, coin price faces critical support level test | XRP price prediction and accomplice contract mechanism analysis

Ripple unlocked approximately $3.28 billion worth of 1 billion XRP custodied tokens as scheduled on August 9, triggering panic (FUD) within the community. Although Ripple executives clarified that this is a routine operation, the market is concerned about potential dumping pressure, causing a disruption in the previous bullish momentum of XRP, which was on the verge of breaking out. Currently, the technical indicators for XRP show that key support levels are under pressure, with analysts pointing out the possibility of a pullback, but long positions may be gathering in the demand area below. This article details Ripple's custodian unlocking mechanism, market response, and predictions for XRP's price movement.

XRP Unlocking 1 Billion Coins Triggers FUD, XRP Price Movement Faces Resistance After several days of rise, the XRP price is at a critical moment of breakthrough. However, a large-scale custody unlocking event and the market panic (FUD) it triggered have stifled the potential upward momentum.

Ripple executives attempted to calm market sentiment, but their clarifications made during the weekend market volatility failed to effectively save the XRP price.

XRP Unlocks 1 Billion Coins: Full Analysis of the Event On Saturday (August 9), Ripple released a total of 1 billion XRP Tokens from custody as per the agreement (divided into three transactions: 500 million, 100 million, and 400 million, valued at approximately $3.28 billion), which sparked widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) within the XRP community. These Tokens are part of the custody mechanism established by Ripple in 2017 to stabilize market supply. The emergence of these transactions has drawn significant attention from the market, leading to speculation that it may be a precursor to large-scale dumping.

"They want you to buy XRP when they sell it," wrote CFA analyst and well-known user of platform X, Rajat Soni. Soni's comments and other similar views suggest that XRP may be manipulating its custody release schedule. Previously, the price of XRP benefited from the positive developments in Ripple's long-term lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and has remained in a bullish trend.

XRP CTO clarifies the custody mechanism, community concerns remain In the face of FUD, Ripple's Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz clarified that the release of escrow is part of on-chain routing operations. "They always release the escrow on the first day of every month. But the escrow release does not mean that you will necessarily see related activities on the ledger. The ledger itself does not automatically execute any operations; it always requires someone to submit a transaction to trigger it," Schwartz explained. However, community members pointed out that there have been multiple unplanned contract releases from the Ripple escrow account over the past two months.

Despite this, Ripple's custody system has been a focal point of long-term debate, as the company holds a large amount of XRP through this contract arrangement. According to XRPscan data, after the release on August 9, approximately 35.6 billion XRP remain locked in custody. A user questioned: "...Can Ripple manipulate the release date of the custody contract at any time? Theoretically, can they release all 36 billion XRP in the next 5 minutes?"

According to its operating mechanism, the custody contract of XRP releases up to 1 billion XRP each month. The original intention of this system is to avoid impacting the market. It helps stabilize the price of XRP, and although the system is structured and predictable, individual transactions (especially those displayed on the XRP ledger) often trigger market fluctuations.

XRP Price Technical Analysis: How Do Bulls and Bears Position Themselves?

(Source: TradingView) Analysts point out that from a longer time frame, XRP price may still have breakout potential. However, on the daily chart, the price of XRP seems to be cooling off, preparing for the next volatility, with long positions starting to position themselves in the key area below.

According to the bullish trading volume distribution chart (blue area), long positions are waiting for the price to interact above the demand area between $2.9611 and $2.7354. This suggests that the current downtrend may continue by 5% to 7% before a reversal could occur. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also declining, indicating weakening upward momentum. If the immediate support level at $3.1061 is broken, the XRP price may continue to decline until long positions provide support in the aforementioned demand area.

Conversely, if strong buying pressure appears above the current price level, the XRP price may resume its upward trend and possibly suppress the bears (red trading volume distribution chart). However, given that the supply zone between $3.4000 and $3.5493 forms resistance above, traders looking to establish long positions in XRP may need to wait for the daily chart to effectively break above the midpoint of this supply zone ($3.4687).

If the daily closing price can firmly stand above this level, it may catalyze further rise, laying the foundation for XRP price to challenge the previous high of 3.6607 USD again. This move would mean a rise of about 7% from the current level.

Conclusion: The aftermath of the XRP unlocking event remains unsettled, and the XRP price seeks direction The monthly routine unlocking of XRP custody, while a predetermined mechanism, can still easily trigger fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) during sensitive market periods, leading to short-term price pressure on XRP. The technical indicators show that the price is near a key support zone, intensifying the battle between long positions and sellers. Investors need to closely monitor the validity of the $3.1061 support level and the breakthrough of the midline in the $3.4687 supply zone, as these key price levels will determine whether XRP's short-term movement continues its pullback or resumes its rise. The market is closely watching XRP's subsequent actions and on-chain capital flows to assess the potential impact of actual selling pressure.