It is rumored that China plans to launch a renminbi stablecoin to compete with the US dollar? Concerns over capital outflow have become the biggest obstacle | 2025 Global Stablecoin Game

According to the UK Financial Times, China is secretly planning to launch a Renminbi stablecoin aimed at breaking the dominance of the dollar and bypassing the SWIFT cross-border payment system. In the past two months, financial regulatory authorities have intensively summoned experts to discuss the issuance path, but they face a fundamental contradiction: the conflict between decentralization technology and strict financial control national policy. The central bank is most worried that the stablecoin could become a tool for capital flight and Money Laundering, and the CEO of blockchain infrastructure company Saga bluntly stated that this technology "cannot be controlled by centralization." Although Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation has attracted Chinese institutions like JD.com and Animoca to compete for licenses, mainland China may miss the competitive window due to the comprehensive encryption ban in 2025, while South Korea's fanC and Initech have already taken the lead in testing the Korean won stablecoin.

National Strategic Drive: Aiming at Dollar Hegemony, Building an Alternative to SWIFT Sources reveal that the Chinese authorities view stablecoins as a strategic tool to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Inspired by the success of dollar stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), China plans to issue an offshore RMB-pegged stablecoin, with the core objective being:

1. Break the Dollar Monopoly: Weaken the dominant position of the dollar in global trade settlement.
2. Payment Autonomy: Establish alternative cross-border payment channels to SWIFT to prevent financial disconnection risks under the Sino-U.S. conflict. In the past two months, Chinese financial regulatory authorities have frequently convened experts to discuss the issuance mechanism, technical implementation, and testing plan for the RMB stablecoin.

Regulatory Dilemma: Technological Freedom vs Financial Control, Capital Outflow Becomes the Top Concern The project advancement faces fundamental contradictions:

• Technical Essence Conflict: Rebecca Liao, CEO of blockchain infrastructure company Saga, pointed out that stablecoin technology "cannot be centrally controlled", which contradicts China's need for strict monitoring of capital flows. She warned: "When China invests in this technology, funds will flow to places it does not wish to see."
• Fear of Capital Flight: Central Banks are especially concerned that stablecoins will become a new channel for illegal capital outflow and Money Laundering.
• Policy Shackles: The comprehensive cryptocurrency ban (including trading and mining) implemented in September 2025 directly opposes the open financial ecosystem and current policies. Experts participating in the discussion admitted that any stablecoin project approved by China must comply with "special national conditions," implying that strong monitoring mechanisms need to be embedded.

Hong Kong Racing Excitement: Chinese Institutions Compete for Licenses, Only One Seat for State-Owned Bank The implementation of the Hong Kong "stablecoin regulation" intensifies China's FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mentality:

• License Competition: Chinese-funded institutions such as JD Technology, Animoca Brands (in partnership with Standard Chartered and HKT), and RD InnoTech have submitted applications.
• State-owned bank competition: Insider sources reveal that among the four major state-owned banks, only one can obtain the first batch of licenses from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
• Policy Window: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has an open attitude towards Renminbi-backed stablecoins and has not explicitly rejected relevant applications.

Global Landscape: The Four Powers of China, the US, Europe, and South Korea Rise Together, China May Lose the Initiative Global stablecoin regulatory framework accelerates formation:

• United States: The "GENIUS Act" establishes regulation for payment stablecoins.
• European Union: MiCA regulations establish rules for the cryptocurrency market
• South Korea: KakaoBank and NaverPay are laying out the KRW stablecoin, fanC and Initech have launched a pilot. Although China discussed relaxing its stance on digital assets in July, its national stablecoin plan is still trapped in a dilemma due to the dual constraints of capital control technology and policy transition speed.

[Conclusion] China's strategic intention to promote the RMB stablecoin is clear—building financial defenses outside the dollar system and competing for pricing power in the trillion-dollar RWA (Real World Assets) market. However, the inherent contradiction between technological freedom and financial control, combined with the path dependence of the comprehensive encryption ban in 2025, has trapped the plan in a regulatory paradox of "wanting both". The active participation of Chinese institutions in the Hong Kong licensing battle highlights the difficulties of policy transformation in the mainland. If the technical bottlenecks of capital control (such as developing controllable blockchain or backdoor monitoring mechanisms) cannot be overcome, China may become a bystander in the global stablecoin competition, or even passively accept the "regulatory arbitrage" of Hong Kong offshore RMB stablecoins. This game concerning future financial sovereignty has just begun, with the collision of technological logic and political logic.