## Bitcoin Market Depth Analysis: Key Support and Market Sentiment Evolution Amidst Increasing Fluctuation

(As of August 5, 2025)

### 1 💹 Price Fluctuation and Key Levels
- **Volatile Range**: Bitcoin has recently fluctuated sharply between **$111,900–$115,000**. After briefly breaking through $115,000 on August 4, it quickly fell back to $114,500, triggering **$125 million in leveraged position liquidations within 1 hour**. On August 2, it even dipped below $113,000 to $111,903, marking a two-week low.
- **Key support and resistance**:
- **Strong support zone**: $110,000–$112,000 (50-day EMA support + institutional buyer concentration zone);
- **Bullish defense line**: There is a **111,000 BTC buy order** at $107,160, forming a technical buffer;
- **Breakthrough Threshold**: Must hold above $117,400 (88,000 BTC resistance) and break through the previous high of $119,504 to challenge the historical peak.

### 2 📉 Market sentiment and capital flow
- **Panic sentiment rises**: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen below **50** (currently at 45) for the first time in a month, indicating that the market has entered the "panic" zone. The main reasons for the decline in investor confidence include:
- **ETF Fund Exodus**: On August 1, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was **$810 million**, the highest in six months; Ethereum ETFs also ended a streak of inflows, with an outflow of $150 million;
- **Leverage Liquidation Wave**: At the beginning of August, the total liquidation across the network exceeded **$754 million**, with long positions accounting for 93%, reflecting the cleaning of overly optimistic positions.
- **Institutional long positions remain unwavering**: Despite the increasing short-term selling pressure, the OTC platform's holdings have risen against the trend to **500,000 BTC** (an increase of 245% compared to 2021), indicating that large funds are accumulating at lower prices.

### 3 🧮 Technical Structure and On-chain Signal Divergence
- **Bullish Technical Pattern**: The weekly chart has formed an **inverted head and shoulders pattern**, with a theoretical target price pointing to $172,000. If the $110,000 neckline is held, the mid-term upward channel remains valid.
- **Whale Activity Warning Risk**:
- On August 1st, a single day **40,000 BTC loss transferred to the exchange**, the whale ratio on the exchange reached a yearly high, indicating that selling pressure may continue;
- **"Ancient Wallet" Awakens**: In 2010, a miner's address transferred **250 BTC (approximately $30 million)**, and similar historical events are often followed by a depth correction.

The table below summarizes the distribution of key support and resistance levels:

| **Price Level** | **Nature** | **Importance** | **Formation Reason** |
|-------------|---------|-----------|------------|
| **$107,160** | Strong support | ★★★★☆ | 111,000 BTC buy orders |
| **$110,000-$112,000** | support zone | ★★★★★ | 50-day EMA + psychological level |
| **$117,400** | Resistance Level | ★★★☆☆ | 88,000 BTC sell orders |
| **$119,504** | Strong Resistance | ★★★★☆ | Historical High Area |

### 4 🌐 Macroeconomic Pressures and Policy Variables
- **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy**: The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to **70%** (CME FedWatch). If implemented, it may alleviate liquidity pressure, but the short-term hawkish stance (keeping rates at 4.25-4.50%) suppresses risk appetite.
- **Geopolitical tensions escalate**: The US has **raised tariffs to 35%** on countries like Canada, combined with weak employment data (over 90% downward revision of new jobs for May–June), raising concerns of recession and accelerating the risk of capital fleeing risk assets.

### 5 🔮 August seasonal patterns and outlook analysis
- **The historical shadow of the "Cursed Month"**: Over the past decade, Bitcoin's average return in August has been only **1.61%**, with a median decline of **-7.49%**, achieving positive returns in just four years.
- **Special nature of the halving year**: In the year following the halving (2013/2017/2021), Bitcoin saw significant increases in August (**30%/65%/14%**), and whether this can be replicated in the current year has become the focus.

The table below compares the historical performance of Bitcoin in August:

| **Year** | **August Fluctuation** | **Half-Year Reduction** | **Market Background** |
|---------|--------------|----------------|------------|
| **2013** | +30% | Yes | Bull Market After Halving |
| **2017** | +65% | Yes | Bull Market After Halving |
| **2021** | +14% | Yes | Post-halving Bull Market |
| **Other Years** | Median -7.49% | No | Generally Weak |

> **Long and Short Arbitrage Strategy**:
> - **Short term (1-2 weeks)**: If it falls below $110,000, it may test $106,000–$100,000 (Fib retracement level + psychological support);
> - **Mid-term (end of August)**: Michaël van de Poppe and others suggest **accumulating chips on dips**, expecting a new round of upward momentum to start by the end of the month;
> - **Gray Rhino Risk**: Robert Kiyosaki warns that the "August Curse" could cause prices to drop below $90,000, but lacks data support.

### 💎 Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a **high fluctuation and directional decision window**: potential bullish patterns in the technical aspect are in conflict with the selling pressure from on-chain whales, while macro policies and seasonal trends further amplify the divergence. The short-term support of $110,000–$112,000 has become the watershed between bulls and bears.