September Crypto Market Analysis: The Truth Behind the Decline of Most Indicators

In the past September, the crypto market seemed to perform well on the surface, but a deeper analysis of various indicators revealed that the actual situation was not so optimistic. Although the price of Bitcoin rebounded, most key indicators showed a downward trend. This article will comprehensively interpret the real condition of the crypto market in September through data from multiple dimensions.

On-chain transaction activity decreases

In September, the adjusted on-chain total transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum decreased overall by 13%, falling to $328 billion. Among them, the adjusted on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin dropped by 10.2%, while Ethereum fell by 17.8%. This data indicates that although market prices have increased, actual trading activity is declining.

Stablecoin Market Changes

The stablecoin sector also shows a downward trend. In September, the adjusted on-chain transaction volume of stablecoins fell significantly by 30.8%, dropping to $832 billion. However, the issuance supply of stablecoins still experienced a slight increase of 1.3%, reaching $150.4 billion. In terms of market share, USDT and USDC continue to dominate, accounting for 78.3% and 17.6%, respectively.

Decline in Miner Income and Staking Rewards

Bitcoin miners' revenue continued to decline in September, dropping to $815.3 million, a decrease of 4.2%. At the same time, Ethereum staking income also fell by 4%, reaching $209.4 million. This indicates that, despite a rebound in market prices, the actual earnings of miners and stakers have not increased correspondingly.

Ethereum Burn Situation

In September, the Ethereum network burned a total of 26,874 ETH, worth approximately 68.2 million USD. Since the implementation of EIP-1559 in August 2021, Ethereum has burned a total of approximately 4.39 million ETH, worth around 1.24 billion USD. This mechanism has affected the supply of Ethereum to some extent.

The NFT market remains sluggish

The NFT market on the Ethereum chain saw a significant decline again in September, with trading volume dropping by 22%, falling to approximately $96.1 million. This indicates that the NFT market's popularity continues to wane, and investors' interest in digital artworks and collectibles has weakened.

Exchange Trading Volume Decline

The spot trading volume of compliant centralized exchanges (CEX) failed to continue the growth trend of August in September, falling by 17.4% to $724.6 billion. This data reflects a decline in overall market trading activity.

Bitcoin ETF Performance Shines

Unlike other indicators, the spot Bitcoin ETF in September showed positive growth, with a net inflow of approximately $1.13 billion. This indicates that institutional investors remain interested in Bitcoin and are allocating through traditional financial instruments such as ETFs.

The futures market is unevenly distributed between hot and cold

In the crypto market futures, September presented a complex situation. The open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures both saw an increase of around 16%, but the trading volume declined for both. The trading volume of Bitcoin futures dropped by 16.1% to $1.11 trillion, while Ethereum futures trading volume fell by 20.8%.

CME Bitcoin Futures Performance

The Bitcoin futures market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed mixed performance in September. Open interest increased by 14.3%, reaching $10.3 billion, but the average daily trading volume decreased by 4.7%, dropping to around $4.8 billion. This reflects an increased long-term holding interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors, while short-term trading activity has decreased.

Ethereum Futures Market Weak

The Ethereum futures market showed weakness in September, with the monthly average trading volume dropping to $465.5 billion, a decline of 20.8%. This data aligns with the overall performance of the Ethereum market, reflecting a cooling of investor enthusiasm for short-term trading of Ethereum.

The options market shrinks

The crypto market for cryptocurrency options generally showed a downward trend in September. The open interest for Bitcoin options decreased slightly by 1.6%, while the open interest for Ethereum options saw a larger drop of 8.4%. In terms of trading volume, the monthly trading volume for Bitcoin options fell by 28.1% to $38.6 billion, and the trading volume for Ethereum options plummeted by 37.5% to $9.7 billion.

Overall, although the cryptocurrency market saw a rebound in prices in September, the actual activity and participation levels in the market have declined to varying degrees according to most key indicators. This coexistence of apparent prosperity and substantial sluggishness warrants deep reflection from market participants and analysts. The future direction of the market still requires continued attention to the changing trends of various indicators.