Investment Strategy Development and BTC Trading Skills Sharing

When formulating a personal investment strategy, it is necessary to think from both personal and market perspectives. From a personal perspective, the following points should be considered:

1. Total amount of investable assets, ensuring no restrictions from loan repayments or time liquidity.
2. Investment Goals and Expected Returns
3. Risk Tolerance and Volatility Tolerance
4. Investment Time Cycle
5. Personal Liquidity Arrangement

From a market perspective, it is necessary to focus on:

1. The alignment of the current market cycle with individual investment plans
2. Reasonable position control to avoid over-diversification.

To outperform BTC, it mainly relies on timing and coin selection.

When selecting cryptocurrencies, one should pay attention to small coins with growth potential. When choosing assets, factors such as the project's growth potential, profitability, and market sentiment should be considered. One can train their coin selection ability by observing the exchange rate changes of small coins relative to BTC.

In terms of timing for BTC, follow the principle of "buy when no one is asking, sell when there is a clamor." At the same time, a long-term allocation and periodic selling strategy can be adopted to capture most of the gains in the market.

When determining the market top, it can be analyzed from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives:

1. Quantitative perspective: Pay attention to changes in growth rates; when the growth rate gradually slows down, it may be approaching a peak.
2. Qualitative perspective: The market may rise for certain reasons and may also fall for others. Pay attention to changes in market sentiment and driving factors.

The driving force of the market can be explained by the "Crust Theory", which states that the core of market changes is driven by emotions, which then layer by layer influence project fundamentals, price performance, and the level of market prosperity.

Judging market sentiment can be done through various indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, ETF fund flows, and price movements outside of trading hours. A comprehensive analysis of these indicators can yield the overall sentiment state of the market.

Methods to continuously discover new investment opportunities (Alpha) include:

1. Actively embrace and understand new things
2. Break out of the limitations of the crypto world and look at issues from a broader perspective.
3. Maintain a curiosity about the world and explore the driving forces behind price movements.

For traders' self-growth, it is recommended to read books such as "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" and "Financial Alchemy". Continuous learning and improving cognitive levels are key to achieving long-term stable returns.

Finally, it is worth noting that it is not necessary to pursue beating BTC. Finding a trading strategy that suits oneself and continuously practicing to improve can yield a sense of growth and enjoyment that may be more valuable than mere monetary returns. This experience of continuous growth is the core motivation that supports traders' progress.