99% of people simply believe: Fed rate cuts = Cryptonaut



Very wrong ❌, the last 4 bull markets

In 2017, BTC surged to 19800, while the Fed was in a rate hike cycle of 1.25%-1.50%.
In November 2021, BTC reached a high of 69000, with interest rates remaining near 0 for a long time; the rate cuts started as early as March 2020.
In 2023, the rebound to 73000 occurred during the interest rate hike cycle.
In 2024, during the range of 74000-123000, the interest rate did not change.

Result-oriented, it can be summarized as:
Easier to pull on interest rate cut expectations.
Cutting interest rates doesn't necessarily mean a rise.
Pulling doesn't necessarily mean pulling immediately.
It's easier to pull when the interest rate is stable, whether at high or low levels.

What is the reason?
1. From the crypto world perspective - the core engine of the bull market harms the explosion of applications, such as Ethereum in 2017, NFT gamefi and MicroStrategy's institutional entry in 2021, and ETF expectations.
2. Lowering interest rates is a result of a deteriorating economy - the aim is to reduce debt costs. This part is difficult to convert into crypto world investments, but existing funds will become conservative in their investments due to declining returns.

So the bull market in the crypto world generally comes before the interest rate cuts arrive, or during the stable phase after the rate cuts, essentially waiting for expectations.
BTC0.86%
ETH1.59%
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