Tonight, the Ethereum (ETH) market will face a critical moment, as the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data may trigger significant fluctuations in ETH prices. Currently, the ETH price is moving from the upper Bollinger Band towards the middle band, and the MACD indicator is also showing a contraction trend. The technical aspect seems to be waiting for a key signal—the U.S. non-farm payroll data at 20:30 tonight.

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price dropping from the upper band to the middle band, indicating a temporary weakening of bullish momentum. However, the middle band remains a key support level. If this level can be held, ETH still has the potential to rise; if it breaks below, further declines may be faced. The MACD indicator shows a shortening of the red bars, but the fast and slow lines are still in a bearish crossover at a high level, suggesting a possible pullback in the short term. It is worth noting that the current trading volume is shrinking, reflecting that market participants are generally waiting for key data to be released.

In terms of market expectations, if the non-farm payroll data shows a weak labor market (such as an increase in the unemployment rate or a decrease in the employed population), the US dollar may weaken, which would be beneficial for the price of ETH, potentially even breaking through 3800 USD. Conversely, if the data shows a strong labor market (such as a decrease in the unemployment rate or an increase in the employed population), it may strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby putting pressure on the price of ETH, which could test 3500 USD or even lower levels.

Given the current market uncertainty, investors should remain cautious and avoid acting rashly before data is released. It would be a wiser choice to rationally wait for the data to be published and assess its actual impact on the market before making corresponding investment decisions.