The following is a comprehensive analysis and future outlook of the Ethereum market in July 2025, integrating market perspectives and technical indicators:

1. Core Market Dynamics as of July 29
Price fluctuation range
Short-term support level: $3726-$3750 (key bullish-bearish dividing line)
Main resistance level: $3950-4000 (target $4100-4200 after breakout)
Intraday volatility: fluctuating between 3730 and 3940 USD, with a 24-hour amplitude exceeding 5%.
Market Bull-Bear Divergence
Bullish View:
The weekly chart shows 11 consecutive positive closes, creating the largest monthly gain since 2022, with ETF funds continuously inflowing (net inflow of $1.59 billion last week).
On-chain transaction volume is approaching the pre-high level of May 2021, with new buyer activity reaching a peak.
Target: After breaking 4100, look for a historical new high of 4865 USD.
Bearish Warning:
Daily line top divergence signal, the proportion of open contracts reaches 40%, the highest since April 2023, indicating a risk of short squeeze.
Above $4000 is the historical resistance zone, and the probability of a one-time breakthrough is low.
2. Key Technical Signals
Trend Structure
Upward channel continues: The 4-hour level maintains an upward channel, with the midline support at $3760.
Wedge breakout pending confirmation: need to break through the weekly level black trend line (current resistance level 3970)
Volume Indicator
Institutional positioning changes: 700,000 ETH waiting to exit staking, short-term selling pressure may intensify.
Derivatives Signal: ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks 0.06, funds rotate to altcoins.
3. Discrepancies in Short-term Operation Strategies
Strategy Type Entry Area Target Level Stop Loss Level Basis
Long at low $3760-$3800 $3950-$4000 Break below $3720 Channel mid-axis support + ETF fund support
High altitude 3900-3940 USD 3700-3500 USD Breakthrough at 3970 USD Daily top divergence + historical resistance zone
Breakthrough chasing up Effective breakthrough at 4000 USD 4200-4865 USD Breakdown at 3940 USD Short stop-loss triggered + new high momentum
📌 Note: 78% of analysts recommend avoiding chasing prices, waiting for a pullback or confirmation of a breakout.
IV. Major Event Catalysts (Week of July 30)
macroscopic level
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (July 30) + US Q2 GDP data (July 30)
The White House's first cryptocurrency policy report released (July 30)
Industry Trends
The 10th anniversary of the Ethereum Genesis Block (July 30) will see the release of a commemorative NFT.
MicroStrategy Financial Report Announcement (July 31)
5. Medium to Long-term Outlook
Conditions for a Bull Market:
✅ The weekly close stands firm at $4000, opening up the space to $5000.
❌ If it falls below 3500 USD, it may test the support zone of 3000-3200 USD.
On-chain positive signals:
The proportion of non-exchange holdings has risen to 85%, and long-term holders are showing significant reluctance to sell.
💡 Operation Suggestions:
Short-term focus on the support zone of 3726-3750 for long and short battles. A breakthrough at 4000 allows for position increases; for medium to long-term holders, it is recommended to take profits in batches above 4100 while keeping some base positions to bet on new highs.