ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from July 27, 2025, 23:00)

Core Logic: Initial signs of a top divergence, oscillating with a bearish bias, defensive trading.

Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:

Closed at 3808.77 (almost flat), with a range of 0.24% (3802.49-3811.59), indicating strong resistance around 3810.

Support: 3802.49 (intraday low), 3790 (previous low platform); Resistance: 3811.59 (intraday high), 3820 (psychological barrier).

Indicator Signal:

MACD Death Cross Confirmation: DIF(6.22) crosses below DEA(8.81), MACD bars expand to -5.17, short bearish momentum strengthens.

RSI Divergence: RSI1(46.06) has fallen below the neutral zone, while RSI3(55.71) remains high, indicating a potential exhaustion of bulls.

Abnormal trading volume: 12,920 (below the 5/10 day average volume of 35K/34K), a volume-reduced rebound is unsustainable.

Low-risk strategy: focus on high shorts, break through stop loss
Short Position Entry Conditions (Main Strategy):

The price rebounded to the 3810-3812 range without a significant breakout, and the MACD bars continue to weaken.

Target: 3802 → 3795 (previous low extension).

Stop Loss: 3815 (breakthrough previous high +0.5% tolerance).

Long Defense Conditions (Secondary Strategy):

The price breaks through 3815 with volume > 20,000 and MACD turning positive, chase long to 3825.

Or retest 3795-3800 to stabilize (15-minute close with a lower shadow), betting on a rebound to 3810.

Stop loss: 3790 (breaks key support level).

Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 23:15-00:15 (Sunday night trading has low liquidity, which can amplify fluctuations).

Holding period: ≤25 minutes, take profit in batches when earnings reach 5-8 USD.

Position Management: ≤3% of total capital, Profit and Loss Ratio ≥3:1 (e.g., Stop Loss $3, Take Profit $9).

Strategy Advantage: Use MACD Death Cross + Insufficient Volume combination to short, with high odds; Strictly limit range boundary trading to avoid intraday fluctuations.
Risk Warning: If the entry point is not reached before 00:15, or if the volume continues to shrink (VOLUME<10,000), abandon the trade.

Action Summary:
① Main focus on short positions: Short at 3810 with light position, stop loss at 3815, target 3802→3795.
② Alternative Long Position: Break above 3815 to chase long up to 3825, or stabilize at 3795 for a short long up to 3810, strict stop loss #余币宝年化收益破24%# #Gate Launchpad IKA上线# #以太坊交易量飙升#