2025/7/25 #BTC# $BTC Current trend assessment: oscillating with a weak trend

Key Indicator Analysis:
1. Price Trend:
The price fluctuated from $118,128 on July 17 to $115,361 on July 25, showing an overall downward trend.
Recently, there has been a significant drop (from 118,340 to 115,419 on July 25 at 00:00, a decrease of 2.5%)
2. EMA Indicator:
The fast EMA(12) has crossed below the slow EMA(26), forming a death cross (118132 < 118283)
The two EMA lines are starting to diverge downwards, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum.
3. MACD Indicator:
The MACD histogram remains negative and has significantly widened (latest -343.44)
Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis and accelerating downward (DIF: -361, DEA: -17.58)
Show strong bearish momentum
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI quickly dropped from the mid-range of 50 to 32 (latest 32.06), entering the oversold area.
However, no obvious divergence signals have appeared yet.
5. Trading Volume:
On July 25th at 00:00, an abnormal surge in volume (1298M) occurred, accompanied by a sharp price drop.
The latest trading volume remains high (491M), indicating continued selling pressure.
6. StochRSI:
K value dropped to 0, D value 14.22, indicating extreme oversold.
But the golden cross reversal signal has not yet appeared.
Key Turning Point:
On July 22 at 20:00, there was a short-term increase (MACD golden cross, RSI broke through 60)
But the large volume plunge on July 25 completely destroyed the rebound structure.
Operation Suggestions:
A short-term (4-12 hours) technical rebound may occur due to overselling, but observation is needed:
1. If the price can hold steady at the support of 115,000 and show:
MACD histogram narrowing
RSI rises above 40
Volume amplification
may welcome a rebound
2. If it falls below 115,000 and MACD continues to decline:
May test the support zone of 113,000-114,000
Key focus:
Can the next K-line close above 116,000?
Is the MACD histogram starting to converge?
Can RSI form a bottom divergence?
The current market sentiment is clearly bearish, and it is recommended to operate cautiously, waiting for clearer reversal signals to emerge.