Ethereum (ETH/USDT) 15-Minute Line Strategy Analysis (July 21, 2025 22:01)

Current key points:

Resistance: 3822.26 (daily high)

Support: 3815.53 (intraday low) → Breakout target: 3769.46 (previous low)

Current price: 3815.62 (close to the daily low)

Strategy logic and entry and exit plan
Short signal confirmation (low-risk entry):

Technical form: The K-line closed at 3815.62 (approaching the daily low), and the upper shadow quickly fell back after reaching 3822.26, forming short-term pressure.

Indicator Combination:

MACD(9,3,3): The K value (59.78) has crossed below the D value (60.95), a death cross is forming, and momentum is weakening.

RSI(6,12,24): RSI1 (47.95) has broken below the 50 midline, and the three lines are in a bearish arrangement (54.84→56.68→47.95), short-term overbought correction is underway.

Trading Volume: The actual trading volume (2,572) is lower than the estimate (3,922) and the MA average volume (MA15: 4,095), indicating a lack of capital support for the rebound.

Entry Timing and Stop Loss:

Short position opening point: current price 3815.62 or rebound to around 3820 (when testing previous high fails).

Stop Loss: Above 3838.00 (breakthrough daily high + previous pressure mark), risk is controllable (approximately 0.6%).

Target Take Profit:

First target: 3769.46 (previous low support), profit margin approximately 1.2%.

Second target: If the volume breaks below 3769, look down to the 3700 level (structural support).

Position Cycle:

15-minute level: Hold the position for 1-2 hours (4-8 candlesticks) after the signal is activated, with a focus on the volatility during the period from 22:30 to 23:30.

Risk-Return Ratio and Key Verification
Risk-reward ratio: 1:2+ (Stop loss 6 USDT vs Take profit 46+ USDT).

Invalidation condition: If the price stabilizes above 3822.26, abandon the short position and observe.

Strengthen signal: Pay attention to the surge in trading volume (especially if it breaks 3815 with high volume), or if RS1 drops below 40, it will accelerate downward.

Strategy Summary: Current price 3815.62, take a light short position, stop loss at 3838, target 3769 (conservative)/3700 (aggressive), hold position for 1-2 hours, add to position on breakout.
Core logic: Price closely follows the intraday low + MACD death cross + insufficient volume, a rebound is a short opportunity.

Note: Strict stop loss at 3838 to avoid disturbances from sudden news at night. If it does not break 3815 before 22:30, partial take profit can be considered.