1. Today's key support level and potential fall target

1. Core support range: $2,300–$2,400
$2,400 is the current bull-bear dividing line: Polymarket data shows that there is a 17% probability that ETH will fall to the $2,300–$2,400 range today, and falling below $2,400 may trigger technical selling pressure.
$2,300 is a secondary strong support: If market sentiment deteriorates, this is a dense area of on-chain demand where the June low once stabilized.

2. Extreme situation: $2,200–$2,250 (defensive area)
- This position is the "line of life and death". On-chain data shows that $2,218 has a cost basis of 67.2 million ETH (6.28 million addresses) accumulated. If it falls below this level, it could trigger panic selling, with the next support level seen at $2,050–$2,026.
- However, the probability of a fall to this extent today is only 3.5%, unless an unexpected black swan event occurs.
2. Suggestions for Long Entry Points and Strategies
The following points are arranged according to risk gradients based on technical indicators and on-chain data:

Point area Strategy suggestion Technical/On-chain basis
2,380–2,400 | First position long (40% position) | The 20-day moving average ($2,467) overlaps with the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, a dense liquidity area.
|2,300–2,330| Increase position to long (30% position) | Strong support at June low, institutional order block accumulation area, RSI near oversold. |
| 2,220–2,250| Defensive accumulation (20% position) | On-chain whale cost zone (6.28 million addresses), low probability of breaking, suitable for left-side layout.
3. Risk Warning and Operational Discipline
1. Stop Loss Setting:
- First position stop loss set below 2,380 by 1-2% (e.g., $2,360), with a strict stop loss for additional positions at 2,280, to prevent liquidity crunch after the failure of on-chain support.
2. Macroeconomic Disturbance Term:
- The Federal Reserve's policy direction (especially interest rate cut expectations) may trigger volatility. If the dollar strengthens or BTC falls below $105,000, ETH may also decline.
3. On-chain anomaly monitoring:
- Recently, whale addresses have continuously deposited ETH into exchanges (such as transferring 62,000 coins in a single day on June 30), and we need to be alert to a sudden increase in selling pressure.