Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman warns: Tariff rise may cause inflation to return to 3%, and expectations for interest rate cuts may face Halving.

On June 18, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida warned that the fight against inflation is not over yet. Since January, inflation data has indeed performed better than expected, but the cumulative effects of inventory front-running and new tariffs have yet to fully materialize. Richard Clarida pointed out that in June, the actual tariff rate faced by American consumers has reached 15.6%, the highest since 1937, which may cause inflation to rise to the 3% range in the short term.

The Federal Reserve's last set of forecasts was released at a meeting in March this year, when the "Day of Liberation" tariffs had not yet shocked the market and global trading partners. In this context, Richard Clarida stated that the real question is whether the Federal Reserve still expects to approve two rate cuts this year or will reduce it to just one rate cut.