Some popular tracks in the crypto world that have been debunked and tracks that are promising for the future.

Some concepts that were initially hyped up have, in retrospect, mostly been proven to be more hype than reality:
• GameFi: Although it has rebounded a bit recently, it is still stuck in the old routine of "play-to-earn" as a whole, with limited innovation.
• SocialFi: The combination of social and finance has always been idealized, but the actual scenarios are scarce. Kaito seems to have found a bit of a breakthrough, but most projects still haven't taken off.
• DeFi: Although theoretically decentralized finance is one of the essences of blockchain, user returns are not sustainable, and the value of airdrops is becoming increasingly difficult to assess.
• Layer2: Many scaling solutions sound great, but the demand doesn't actually exist; it's more about "scaling for the sake of scaling."
• NFT: The price expectation difference between buyers and sellers is too large, resulting in liquidity exhaustion, and the project party has not found a long-term play.
• Bitcoin ecosystem: To be honest, there are too few practical scenarios, and apart from consensus, it basically relies on faith to hold on.
• Coin mixer: Under scrutiny from policies and regulations, extremely high risk.
• Inscription/Rune-type assets: The short-term speculation factor is too strong, lacking long-term value support.
The technology is good but in a direction that is "not usable".
The technology in these fields does have value, but it hasn't connected with market demand, leading to obstacles in implementation:
• Staking: It seems to be profitable, but retail investors can hardly participate due to high thresholds and complex gameplay.
• ZK (Zero-Knowledge Proof): High technological barrier, but currently there are no particularly "urgent" use cases.
• LSD (Liquid Staking): The theory is good, but the actual effect is not as expected.
• DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network): While the logic is coherent, many parts cannot be trained through machine learning and can only be inferred.
• Modular blockchain: Sounds flexible, but there are not many projects that actually need it, and the demand is very low.
• Chain abstraction, cross-chain bridges: The concepts are elaborated in an impressive manner, but in reality, they are used by few and are deemed untrustworthy.
• Blockchain cloud computing: not yet validated by the market, mostly in the conceptual stage.
• Privacy protection: It is too far from the actual needs of users, especially large capital users do not buy it.
• Intent recognition projects: Many times it feels like a forced demand construction, and the actual implementation is awkward.
• Prediction markets: Besides Polymarket performing quite well, other platforms are not doing so great.
• Layer3: Although it stands on top of Layer2, it currently seems more like an added complexity, which users are not interested in.
Personal views on future trends
I believe that the following areas still have strong potential in the present or near future and are worth keeping an eye on:
• Payment-related (PayFi): Users' essential needs, supported by real transaction demands.
• Some RWA (Real World Assets on the chain): Mapping off-chain assets into the chain, gradually finding a balance between compliance and the market.
• Derivatives trading: Many professional players, strong liquidity, supported by mature financial logic.
• Sui Ecosystem: Clear technical route, active development.
• Decentralized Exchange (DEX): Although facing challenges, it remains a core part of DeFi.
• Stablecoins: Regardless of bull or bear markets, they are always the "water, electricity, and coal" infrastructure of the crypto world.
• Oracle: The key interface for on-chain data from off-chain, still irreplaceable.
• Centralized Finance (CeFi): Easier to gain trust than pure DeFi, especially in terms of security and service.
• Bitcoin mining: still one of the value anchors of the entire industry.
• MCP (Model Iteration Capability in AI Field): A key productivity factor in the combination of AI and blockchain.
• FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption): Dual protection of privacy and computation, with a promising future.
• Agent (intelligent agent): An intelligent system that can make decisions independently, will be the core capability of the next generation of AI.
• Decentralized storage: a necessity in the data era.
• Meme coin: A miracle driven by sentiment; although speculative, its influence cannot be ignored.
• Data analysis tools: Help project parties and users understand behavior and optimize decisions.
• Protocol layer products: The underlying rules that determine the direction of the ecosystem, with long-term value. #Bitcoin Pizza Day#