Bitcoin (BTC) Real-time Market Comprehensive Analysis (April 10, 2025)

1. Current Price and Short-term Trends

As of April 10, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated in the range of 80600-83,500, with a 24-hour increase of about 4.35%-5.5%, primarily stimulated by the policy announcement from Trump of M country to suspend new tariffs on China for 90 days, leading to a rapid recovery in market sentiment.

• Key Volatility Range:
  • Support Level: 79,500-80,000 (Institution Cost Line), 74,038 (Recent Low);
  • Resistance level: 83,000-84,439 (futures gap + previous high).
• Volume Performance:
  • During the rebound, the trading volume decreased (down 40% from the previous day), showing the characteristics of "infinite rebound", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the lack of follow-up momentum.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Trend Indicator:

   • MACD: The daily level shows a convergence of negative values, a golden cross forms at the 1-hour level, short-term upward momentum is strengthening, but the daily is still under pressure from the 200-day moving average (83,000).
   • KDJ/RSI: KDJ is neutral to bearish (value 73), RSI has risen to 55 in the neutral zone, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears.
   • Bollinger Bands: The price has broken above the upper band on the 4-hour chart, but the mid-band on the daily chart (83,500) is clearly acting as resistance, and a failed breakout may trigger a pullback.

2. Morphological Signals:

   • W Double Bottom Pattern: The four-hour chart shows a double bottom structure. If it holds above 80,000, a rebound may continue;
   • TD Sequence: ETH daily chart shows a "sell count", BTC needs to pay attention to whether it can effectively break through 83,500.

3. Market Dynamics and Capital Situation

1. Policy and Event Driven:

   • Trump's tariff suspension policy alleviates market panic, but analysts point out that this measure is merely a "temporary relief." The China-U.S. game and risks in the U.S. bond market still exist.
   • The PPI data for country M will be released at 20:30 tonight. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may trigger a 5% level of volatility.

2. On-chain data:

   • Mining pressure intensifies, nearing the levels of the 2022 bear market, but long-term holders have increased their holdings by 400,000 BTC since February, showing confidence;
   • Whales are placing concentrated sell orders in the 80,000-82,000 range, and the exchange's BTC supply increased by 180,000 coins in one week, raising short-term selling pressure risks.

4. Operating Suggestions and Risk Warnings

1. Short-term Strategy:

   • Bullish: Aggressive traders can take a small long position (around 80400), with a stop loss at 78,800; conservative traders can place an order to add to their position at 79,500.
   • Short Position: Short positions in the 83,500-84,000 range, stop loss at 84,500, target below 80,000.

2. Risk Warning:

   • Liquidation Zone Below: If it falls to 73,800-74,400, it may trigger a large-scale long liquidation;
   • Emotional Overheating: The ETH options Put/Call ratio has plummeted to 0.7, raising caution for potential pullback risks.

5. Summary and Outlook

Bitcoin is boosted by favorable policies in the short term, but the technical aspect still faces key resistance, and market liquidity has not significantly improved. It is recommended for investors:

1. Pay attention to the $83,500 breakout. Once stabilized, it may open up upward space to $86,800 (EMA300);
2. Beware of PPI data and Grayscale GBTC selling pressure (8,900 BTC unlocked today);
3. Light position operations, strict stop loss, prioritize right-side trading to confirm trends.

The market is still in a high volatility phase, and strategies need to be dynamically adjusted in conjunction with indicators such as moving averages and trading volume.