Summer 2025 Bitcoin: Not to be Missed

Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain

After a tumultuous start in 2025, Bitcoin reignites its upward momentum, breaking through six figures again, reminding investors why they can endure the volatility. However, as the momentum returns, a familiar saying resurfaces: "Sell in May and go away." This investment adage is traditionally associated with the stock market but is now being mentioned in the Bitcoin community as well. So, does this strategy hold water in the current market? Let’s delve into seasonal trends, historical performance, and on-chain data to determine whether exiting now is a wise strategy or if it may lead to missing the biggest opportunity of this cycle.

Re-examine the argument of "selling in May and going away"

This investment strategy originates from traditional finance, recommending to exit the market in May and return in November, as the historical performance during the summer months is usually weaker. The seasonal chart of Bitcoin does show that the summer months (, especially from June to September ), tend to perform poorly. However, broader performance data reveals a more nuanced story, particularly in the Bitcoin market.

Historically, the average return in the summer months has been lower.

When applying this strategy to Bitcoin, the main basis is the years 2014, 2018, and 2022, when Bitcoin experienced deep and prolonged bear markets. In these years, the summer months' returns undoubtedly performed poorly. But what if we exclude these bear market years from the dataset?

Performance After Excluding Bear Market

When excluding bear market years, Bitcoin's average returns for each month, including June to September, have turned positive, with the average return for even historically the worst-performing September showing a slight profit of +0.37%. October's average return is as high as 26%, making it one of the best-performing months for Bitcoin in history.

After excluding the bear market years, the average return for each month is positive.

This reversal completely overturns the argument for a summer exit. The strategy only seems reasonable when influenced by a deep bear market cycle. In a bull market or neutral years, summer has significant upside potential.

The True Cost of Exiting in May

The compound return analysis vividly illustrates this point. Based on historical monthly performance, if you had invested $100 starting in 2012 and held onto (, including summer ), your compound returns would now exceed $2 billion.

From the perspective of composite returns, the "May exit" strategy performed far worse than holding continuously.

But if you exit every May, avoiding June to October, your final capital will only be 112 million USD, with returns nearly 18 times lower. Even if you only avoid June to September and return in October, the return will still drop significantly to 536 million USD, just a quarter of the returns from holding continuously. Missing the summer means missing the exponential effect of Bitcoin's compounded growth.

Will this summer be different?

From an on-chain perspective, especially the MVRV Z-score, Bitcoin's structure remains healthy and is far from typical cycle top levels. The current market pattern shows that Bitcoin still has considerable room for upward movement. If the rhythm of this cycle is similar to the previous bull market, the real top may not appear until October or later.

The current MVRV Z score of Bitcoin indicates that this cycle is far from reaching its peak.

Abandoning positions now based on the expectation of "typical" seasonal weakness not only contradicts the data but may also result in investors being pushed out of the market during the most explosive phase of the 2025 cycle.

Conclusion

While seasonal patterns should not be completely ignored, they must be analyzed in context, especially for macro-driven assets like Bitcoin. Bull market cycles, liquidity flows, global economic conditions, and investor behavior are far more important than the months on the calendar.

The Bitcoin cycle is mainly driven by supply and demand, and now, the summer of 2025 is likely to become a frenzy period for Bitcoin. Historical patterns, momentum, and market structure dynamics all point to strong upward potential in the fourth quarter. Investors should not exit based on seasonal clichés, but should closely monitor on-chain and macro indicators, focusing on long-term positioning.

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