#美联储会议纪要#

[No interest rate cuts, only observation: Is the FOMC teaching a philosophy class?]
The minutes of this round do not resemble a monetary policy meeting; instead, they feel like a dialogue between Laozi and Zhuangzi. It is filled with terms like "might," "some officials believe," "continue to observe"... After reading it, the market fell into deep thought.
The core message is this: we don't know if future inflation will go down, nor do we know whether interest rates should be cut, but we can continue to remain inactive. The FOMC's recent actions perfectly avoided the risk of commitment and took the art of "ambiguity" to the extreme.
Interestingly, the minutes also included officials suggesting that if the economy truly slows down too much, it may be necessary to ease policies. It's like a doctor saying, "You might not be sick, but if you do get sick, I'll think of a solution then." This made investors even more anxious.
The market reaction is as dramatic as ever: gold rises and then plunges, the Nasdaq experiences a roller coaster ride, and the dollar hides in the corner laughing. The outcome: the market's expectations for interest rate cuts continue to be pushed back, and the yield curve is completely restless.
Conclusion: This FOMC, whether you believe it or not, it truly "doesn't want to move," but it also doesn't want you to know that it doesn't want to move.